Research On Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation With Photovoltaic And Wind Power Access

With the increasing access scale of the distributed generation,which is represented by photovoltaic and wind power generation,the fluctuation of these distributed generation power generation to the power grid is becoming stronger and stronger.The traditional power flow calculation can not effectively analyze the impact of this wave,and the tidal current is an effective means to analyze this problem.This paper studies the probabilistic power flow algorithm with PV and wind power access,which is mainly divided into three parts: the output model of photovoltaic and wind power system,the probability flow algorithm based on non-parameter estimation and the improved Latin hypercube algorithm,the probability flow calculation software system of photovoltaic and wind power acce ss.In this paper,the grid type of photovoltaic and wind power is analyzed.According to the characteristics of the two networks,the output model of photovoltaic power generation and wind power is built,and the corresponding relationship between the light intensity,the instant wind speed and the active power output of the generator is obtained,and the Bate distribution and the Weibull distribution model are constructed.The probability distribution model of light intensity and instantaneous wind speed is built,and the active output model of photovoltaic and wind power system is constructed.Then,in order to solve the problem that the traditional Monte Carlo algorithm has large computational complexity and cannot analyze the node relevance,a probabilistic power flow algorithm based on non parametric estimation and improved Latin hypercube algorithm is proposed in this paper.First,the edge distribution of random variables is obtained by nonparametric estimation,and the initial sampling matrix is obtained by sampling the edge distribution by the Latin hypercube sampling,and the Cholesky decomposition method is introduced to deal with the sampling matrix,and the calculated sample matrix is finally obtained.Through the simulation of IEEE 30 node,the algorithm has the advantages of high accuracy,fast computation speed,and suitable for multi node access system.Finally,based on the probabilistic power flow algorithm based on non parametric estimation and improved Latin hypercube algorithm,a software system for probabilistic power flow calculation with photovoltaic and wind power access is designed on the MATLAB GUI platform.The system includes network information input module,distribution fitting module,power flow calculation module,result output and storage module four.The application of probabilistic power flow algorithm is realized.At the same time,in the end of this paper,the actual power grid is introduced for analysis,which reflects the practicability of the algorithm and software system.