Residual Life Of Satellite Platform System Fusing Multiple-source Information

Prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)of satellite platforms is a key issue in the study of the quality characteristics of complex satellite equipment systems.The reliability information obtained at present can be divided into expert information,life data and performance degradation data.The traditional residual life prediction method can't effectively use all kinds of information,and it is difficult to solve the information conversion problem of complex systems.In this paper,we present a credible method of predicting the residual life of satellite platform unit based on multi-source information.Taking the four typical reliability structures as the research direction,a creative residual life prediction method is presented which converting from the life of the bottom single unit to the life of the top platform,the main contents are as follows:(1)A method of predicting the remaining life of single machine by combining three kinds of heterogeneous information sources.There are seldom researches that fused three different sources of information.Two life distributions were obtained by integrating life data,expert information,life data and performance degradation data respectively.Based on the data consistency test,the ML-II method was used to calculate the distribution weight respectively,and the combined life distribution was obtained.Finally,the remaining life prediction is completed by sampling the life distribution directly through the simulation method.(3)The method of predicting the remaining life for cold standby system is given.The current research on the remaining life of cold-standby system is mostly limited by the component's distribution and complex system analysis and expression.In this paper,the simulation method for the life prediction of cold standby system is proposed.Based on the above results,the remaining life prediction method of cold standby system is given under three different failure conditions.The experimental results show that the proposed method has wide applicability and with high precision.(4)The simulating method for predicting the remaining life of satellite platform system is given.At present,there are few researches on the prediction of the remaining life of complex systems.Based on the characteristics of four typical reliability structures and the life distribution or life data of components,a general simulation method is proposed to convert the lower-level subsystem to the upper-level subsystem after the system is modeled by the reliability diagram,which has good generality and high precision.