Analysis On The Motivation And Welfare Of International Conflicts In Trade Dependence

By using the data of international conflicts and bilateral trade of 174 countries in the world from 1993 to 2010,based on the possibility of international conflict and the scale of it,this paper investigates the motivation of trade dependence of international conflicts and the welfare variation of third countries after conflicts.We consider the two characteristics of trade dependence,the trade interdependence and the asymmetry of dependence.Through empirical research,we examine that trade interdependence has an inverted u-shaped relationship with the possibility and scale of international conflicts.The asymmetry of trade dependency has a positive u-shaped relationship with the possibility and scale of international conflicts.The trade dependence of strategic industries on international conflicts is greater than other industries,but it is not significant for the asymmetry;After the occurrence of international conflicts,the trade of third countries has a substitution effect on the countries in conflict.This paper innovates from the research point of view,and puts forward the U-shaped relationship between international conflicts and trade on the basis of previous linear studies.At the same time,we use trade data such as coal,oil and natural gas to represent strategic industries to find the relationship between trade interdependence,asymmetry and international conflicts in different industries.However,this paper is mainly confined to bilateral relations,and the trade motives of third-party countries in international conflicts need to be further studied.This paper provides new ideas for deepening economic and trade cooperation as well as solving international conflicts.