Research On Risk Assessment And Risk Propagation Of Transnational Supply Chain Finance

The vigorous development of economic globalization and the “Belt and Road” to reduce the trade restrictions between the various countries and regions,companies around the world began to become a part of the global industrial chain to participate in market competition.In this context,transnational supply chain finance,as a collaborative tool of supply chain capital operation,has attracted widespread attention of Chinese enterprises.Such trade financing services can not only solve the problems of high cost and capital flow caused by global outsourcing activities,but also alleviate the current situation of high difficulty in financing and high competitive pressure.However,transnational supply chain finance in China is also faced with great challenges: On the one hand,adjusting economic structure and optimizing resource alocation are closely related to maintaining the steady development of this field under the pressure of supply-side structural reform.Therefore,it is of great significance to identify highquality objects from numerous enterprises to carry out trade cooperation.On the other hand,the transnational supply chain system is affected by trade frictions and trade disputes to some extent,so it is crucial to effectively identify the financial risks of transnational supply chain and implement corresponding control strategies.This dissertation takes domestic enterprises as the research perspective and selects transnational supply chain finance as the research object,in order to build the enterprise level of quantitative tools to make macroscopic analysis on risk evaluation in this field.In addition,micro-simulation research is conducted on the spread of financial risks in transnational supply chains based on the theory of complex network and transmission dynamics.The main research contents are as follows:Firstly,on the basis of exploring the financial connotation and typical model of transnational supply chain,the qualifications of enterprise,risk adaptability and macro environmental risk assessment are determined according to the process of risk generation and dissemination,and 30 basic indicators are selected based on domestic and foreign research.On this basis,the index level is divided through the comprehensive analysis of qualitative data and quantitative data.Then,a set of evaluation index system by CRITIC weighting method that can quantify the potential risk of trading objects is constructed to help financial institutions and chain companies identify reliable partners.Secondly,according to the analysis of the transnational supply chain financial network's structure and characteristics,the multi-scale supply network financial network is optimized based on the scale-free network.In order to simulate the network connection mechanism based on growth mechanism and optimal connection in this environment,the evolution model of transnational supply chain financial network with node strength,feature vector centrality and risk fitness is proposed,and its applicability is verified by simulation.Subsequently,the SIS model was introduced into the transnational supply chain financial risk propagation model,and the Matlab simulation study was carried out based on the three main risk influencing factors of enterprise qualification,risk adaptability and macro environment.The results confirmed that the nodes in the network can resist under ideal conditions,especially the probability of core enterprise risk infection is low,and core enterprises can be adaptively adjusted and restored to a healthy state in a shorter period of time;further simulations show that the macro environment's diversion and the risk fitness of different enterprises has different degrees of impact on the speed of risk spread and the scale of proliferation.Then,this dissertation puts forward appropriate suggestions and strategies for the spread and prevention of financial risks in transnational supply chains.Finally,this dissertation adopts the TOPSIS evaluation method and the constructed transnational supply chain financial risk evaluation index system to evaluate the automobile manufacturing enterprises as a whole.Then the comparative analysis of risk assessment scores and the simulation study of risk spread and diffusion of different levels of X company and B company,and the applicability of the above research contents was verified.