| With the vigorous development of water transportation industry and the large-scale tendency of ships,the shoreline conditions of the high-piled wharf are becoming increasingly complex,and the ship collision force is gradually increased.Due to the limitations of the structure and service conditions of the high-piled wharf,the structural components are inevitably damaged over time but difficult to repair,so the security issue of high-piled wharf should be taked seriously.Taking a high-piled wharf project as a prototype,based on the finite element analysis platform,the calculation model of risk prediction and control for all vertical high-piled wharf is established.The deformation and bending strength are selected as the risk determination indicators,for researching the random response law of high-piled wharf under horizontal load.The failure risk curve corresponding to the evolution of high-piled wharf performance is established.According to the curve,the damage probability of high-piled wharf under different destruction state can be predicted in order to adopt congenial preventive and control measures opportunely,which provides an important reference for quantifying the law of safety performance of wharf structure evolving over time.(1)Statistical analysis of horizontal loads based on limit theorems in probability and statistics.The probability distribution model of random variables affecting the effective impact energy of ships and the fitted formulas between impact energy and fender reaction force are studied to solve the random samples of ship collision load by joint programming of matlab.(2)Based on the structural damage criterion in engineering design,the deformation index and bending strength index are selected to determine the risk of high-piled wharf,verified by numerical simulation.It has been found that deformation is the main control index to determine the risk level of steel pipe pile undering the effect of horizontal load.(3)Based on Probabilistic Design System,the deformation response of high-piled wharf under random horizontal load is studied.The research suggests that the horizontal load is linearly related to the displacement of pile at the mud suiface,and the linear fitting formulas have been established.(4)Combining the elastic modulus reduction method and the probabilistic design method,the random response law of safety performance evolving over time for high-piled wharf is studied comprehensively.The failure risk curve corresponding to the evolution of high-piled wharf performance is established.The risk prediction and control calculation model of high-piled wharf under different damage conditions is established,quantifying risk level of wharf structure under horizontal load in the form of probability. |