Analysis And Evaluation Of Power System Impact Considering Wind Power Forecast Error

With the increase of the scale of renewable energy power generation,such as wind energy and solar energy,the economic and environmental protection of power system operation has improved.However,the uncertainty of wind power may make errors in wind power forecasting.As a result,the wind power capacity of the power system and power transmission of the wind power and photoelectricity are greatly restricted,and there are serious abandoning problems of wind power and photovoltaic power.How to accurately evaluate the impact of prediction errors of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation on the power system is a topic that needs to be studied to increase the acceptance rate of renewable energy.This paper focuses on the assessment of the impact of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation prediction errors on the power system.The main research contents include the following three parts:1)The basic evaluation methods on power system assessment considering wind power prediction errors are systematically explored.The IA-SPAM,discretization simulation method and optimal load shedding model based on DC power flow are proposed,these can improve the evaluation accuracy and evaluation speed that can better meet the condition requirements.2)The wind power prediction errors assessment model that meets the risk indicator in power system is established.Firstly,the load shedding is quantified as the conditional risk index.Then,according to the respective characteristics of wind power and load forecasting error,the high-efficiency sampling method based on IA-SPAM and discretization method are used to sample the simulation separately.Finally,based on the joint risk calculation method of AC and DC flow,the maximum acceptable error level under conditional risk constraints is solved.The calculation results show that the real probability distribution of wind power and load power can be truly depicted by different simulation methods.The calculation method based on AC and DC flow coordinates the contradiction between solution accuracy and solution speed.3)The impact assessment model of wind power prediction error on large-scale power transmission was established.Firstly,a comprehensive index system including indicators of abundance,economy and environmental protection was established.Then,according to the complementarity of wind power generation and bundling time,the wind forecasting error was jointly simulated.Finally,the evaluation index value is calculated by the optimal load shedding model and IASPAM-TOPSIS method.Furthermore,the relationship between forecast errors of wind/photovoltaic and the evaluation index function is obtained.The calculation results show that the relationship between forecast errors of wind/photovoltaic and various index values and comprehensive scores is effectively evaluated based on the IASPAM-TOPSIS method,and the parameters such as spare capacity are adjusted in time to improve the consumption of wind power generation.The research work in this paper promotes large-scale consumption of renewable energy,improves the safety,economy and environmental protection of power transmission plans,and reduces the depreciation rate of renewable energy.