Research On Load Forecasting And Optimal Scheduling Of Regional Integrated Energy System

With the rapid development of industrialization and the improvement of people's living standards,the contradiction between energy supply and environmental problems has become prominent,it is imperative to promote the transformation of energy structure,improve the comprehensive utilization rate of energy and promote sustainable development.As the main load-bearing form of the energy internet,the integrated energy system covers a variety of energy sources such as electricity,gas,heat,and cold.It can achieve deep coupling of different types of energy sources,and has gradually become the main direction of research in the energy field.Therefore,this paper takes regional integrated energy system as the research object,deeply analyzes the coupling relationship between multiple energy sources,discuss the regional integrated energy system load forecasting,multi-energy flow calculation,and optimal scheduling between energy sources.The main research contents of this article are as follows:(1)It is aimed at the problems of single energy consumption and independent operation of traditional energy systems.Research and analyze the structure of the energy hub,establish a mathematical model of solar photovoltaic solar thermal units,consider the characteristics of multiple energy coupling and operating conditions,establish a mathematical model of the coupling unit,to achieve renewable energy consumption and energy conversion.(2)Aiming at the problems of short-term load fluctuation and randomness,BP neural network algorithm is used to predict short-term electrical and thermal loads.First,discuss the basic concept,model structure,and learning method of BP neural network,and pre-process historical data and quantify the main factors affected by load forecasting.Then,build a short-term load forecasting model of BP neural network.Finally,the MATLAB software simulation verifies that the algorithm in this paper meets the requirements of prediction accuracy and has a good effect in load prediction.(3)Based on the energy flow of the regional integrated energy system,consider the mutual conversion between multiple energy sources.First,establish the respective mathematical models of electricity-gas-heat.Then,based on the traditional power system Newton-Raphson power flow algorithm,the multi-energy flow simultaneous solution method and alternating solution method of the integrated energy system are generalized.Finally,by analyzing examples,these two methods can effectively deal with the multi-energy flow calculation problem,and the corresponding calculation method can be selected according to different scenarios.(4)In order to solve the problems of slow speed and poor convergence of the branch and bound algorithm,an improved branch and bound algorithm that simultaneously selects two separate variables and establishes effective sub-problems is proposed.First,based on user-side load demand,a regional integrated energy system optimal dispatch model is established.Then,the construction takes the minimum operating cost as the objective function and considers the safety constraints of each operating link.Finally,the example verifies that the improved branch and bound algorithm has the advantages of fast speed and good convergence,and at the same time,it can better complete the optimal scheduling between energy sources.