Research On The Default Risk Of Listed Company Bonds

Since China resumed the issuance of treasury bonds in 1981,corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds have also been issued one after another.After decades of development,the multi-level bond market system covering various institutional investors and bond varieties has gradually developed and improved.The bond market is running smoothly.In recent years,with the downward trend of macroeconomic growth,coupled with the continuous tightening of financial supervision and the continuous promotion of deleveraging,default events in the bond market have occurred frequently.The number and amount of defaults on the bond market in 2018 all exceeded the historical peak,and exceeded the sum of the previous three years.The number of bond defaults reached 125 in the whole year,involving a default amount of 120.961 billion yuan.Especially,the number of bond defaults with listed companies as the main body has increased by 25 times than in the past;while the default rate of listed companies in2019 remains at a relatively high level.In this context,research on the default risk of listed companies' bonds becomes particularly important.Therefore,this article takes Yongtai Energy,which has the highest number and amount of bond defaults to date,as an example to study the risk of bond defaults of listed companies.This article takes Yongtai Energy's bond default events as the research object,first introduces the background of Yongtai Energy's enterprises,and reviews Yongtai Energy's bond default events,including bond issuance,default,and subsequent disposal of default.Secondly,based on the Z-value model,measure the default risk of Yongtai Energy's bonds;then combine factor analysis and multiple regression models to select the quarterly indicators that may affect corporate credit risk from 2013 to September 30,2019 to make an empirical analysis of the influencing factors.The empirical results show that GDP growth rate,coal market prosperity index and corporate financial indicators have a significant impact on the default of Yongtai Energy Bonds.Thirdly,with the help of Harvard analysis framework and considering Yongtai Energy's own characteristics,from four levels involving external factors,strategic decisions,quality of accounting information and financial status provide in-depth analysis of the reasons for the default of Yongtai Energy Bonds.Finally,it summarizes the cause analysis of Yongtai Energy's bond default case and the empirical analysis of the factors affectingthe default,and draws corresponding enlightenment from the bond issuer level,the regulator level and the investor level.It is hoped that through the analysis of Yongtai Energy as an example,it can provide some reference for other bond issuers and investors on how to prevent risks,and promote the sustainable and stable development of China's bond market.