Land Use Simulation Based On The Prime Cropland In Peri-urban Areas

The rapid urbanization has brought dramatic changes to the regional land use structure.Wth the rapid expansion of urban construction land,the sharp decrease of cultivated land resources,the serious destruction of the urban ecological environment,we need to seek a sustainable and growing way of development more urgently.In the new period,the land management department of our country hopes to guide and optimize the urban land use structure,control the unordered spread of the city and guide the rational growth,and protect the ecological environment of the city by the use of the prime cropland in the peri-urban areas.Taking the Beibei District of Chongqing as the research object,based on the data of land use status in Beibei District of 2008,2012 and 2016,the process,characteristics and drive of land use / cover dynamic change in Beibei area for the past eight years are studied by geographical information system(GIS)technology,combined with geographic measurement model and SPSS analysis software.The dynamic mechanism,using the CLUE-S model,simulated the land use / cover change of Beibei District in 2025 under the basic farmland scenario and the urban surrounding basic farmland scenario scheme,and established the ecosystem service value evaluation optimization model,and evaluated the ecosystem value under the two scenarios,and studied its sensitivity and change degree..By comparing the simulation and evaluation results under the two scenarios,the paper discusses the practical utility of the basic farmland surrounding urban land use to the future urban land use pattern and the urban ecosystem,grasps the future development direction of the city,and puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions for the urban land use space control.The results indicated that:(1)The characteristics of land use and land cover change in Beibei district are obvious.The land use structure of Beibei area is mainly cultivated land and woodland,and the area of other construction land,such as urban land use and transportation facility land,is increasing continuously in the 2008-2016 years,showing a growth structure.The land,garden,water and rural residential land have been reduced continuously,showing a recession type structure,and the forest land is decreasing and increasing first.The dynamic degree of land use dynamic degree of land use in the past 2008-2012 years is 6.65 in the year of 13.482012-2016,and the intensity of land use change in Beibei District decreases with time.In the 2008-2016 year,the land use transfer in Beibei area is mainly transferred to construction land,such as cultivated land,garden land and other fields,mainly in soil and water town,Renaissance town,town,Zhen Caijiaying economic development center city fast.(2)The temporal and spatial variation of land use / cover in Beibei area is driven by many factors.In this study,the distance from the river,distance from the reservoir,distance from the railway,distance from the provincial road,distance from the county road,distance from the highway,distance from the central city,distance from the rural settlements,the slope,height,population density,the total value of agricultural production and the number of industrial enterprises are 13 driving factors.SPSS software is used to carry out regression analysis and ROC test.It is found that the selected driving factors have a very good interpretation effect on the spatial distribution pattern of land,land,farmland and urban and rural construction land used in woodland,water and water conservancy facilities,and also have a certain interpretation effect on the garden land,topography,industrial development level and urbanization development level.It is the main factor that affects the spatial distribution of land use types in Beibei district.(3)Using the CLUE-S model to verify the spatial simulation of land use in Beibei area and Kappa index in 2016,the Kappa index is 0.868,and the simulation results are ideal.It shows that the CLUE-S model can be well applied to the study of land use / Cover Change Simulation in Beibei district.The basic farmland scenario and the basic farmland scenario around the city are set up to simulate the land use spatial pattern of Beibei District in 2025 under two scenarios.From the area of various land use types,the reduction rate of cultivated land under the basic farmland situation around the city is 0.57% lower than that of the original planning scenario,and the urban and rural construction land is used on the ground.The growth rate of the product is 0.93% lower than that of the original planning situation.The protection of the basic farmland around the city and the restraining effect on the urban expansion are significant.From the spatial pattern,the trend of urban "inward development" is obvious,the layout of urban construction land is more compact,and the urban construction land is more compact.The boundary of urban development based on basic farmland.(4)To establish an optimization model for evaluation of ecosystem services value,and to calculate the value of ecosystem services under two scenarios.It is found that the total value of the ecosystem services in the basic farmland scenario and the basic farmland around the city is lower than that in the 2016,but the living conditions of the basic farmland in the surrounding cities are the same.The state value is obviously higher than the original planning scenario,indicating that the basic farmland around the city has a certain protective effect on the value of the regional ecosystem,and the sensitivity index of the 5 types of land use in Beibei is less than 1,indicating that the value of the ecosystem service value is inelastic to the change of the value coefficient,and the evaluation result is credible.The method can be applied to the future basic farmland adjustment,ecological compensation and the performance assessment of the land management department.The change index of water and woodland is more than 1,indicating that the change of water and woodland area has a significant influence on the ecological value.In the future,the area ratio of gradual water and forest land should be strengthened to improve the value of ecological system in the region.(5)Based on the simulation and evaluation results,the theoretical effectiveness of the basic farmland policy around the city can be achieved.The delineation results in Beibei district are reasonable and effective.But in practice,the government should also take the initiative to change the development thinking,avoid the basic farmland delimiting work in the form and strengthen the construction of the urban omni-directional space management and control system.This article puts forward 5 policy suggestions: 1)the internal digging of potential,the inventory of urban stock land;2)scientifically delimit the urban development boundary and ensure the city has Sequence development;3)promote the implementation of multi compliance,build a characteristic spatial management system;4)strictly protect the basic farmland around the city;5)delimit the red line of ecological protection and enhance the value of the ecosystem.