Study On The Occurrence Law And Change Trend Of Forest Fires In Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Forest fires can cause serious losses of forest resources.For Inner Mongolia,where forest reserves are huge,its influence is more prominent.In order to prevent and extinguish forest fires more effectively,this paper analyzes and summarizes the spatial and temporal distribution of forest fires in Inner Mongolia by arranging statistics on all forest fires in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2018 and using analysis software such as Arcgis,R Project and Excel.Regularly,establish a forest fire occurrence model in Inner Mongolia,predict the occurrence of forest fires,and analyze its forest fire risk rating.The main findings of this paper are as follows:(1)The fire source of forest fires in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is mainly man-made fire source,and the natural fire source is mainly lightning fire.In terms of time,the number of forest fires in Inner Mongolia has fluctuated year by year.The fires are mainly concentrated between March and July.At the daily time,forest fires are the highest at 9:00 to 19:00.In space,the fire occurred mainly in the southeast of the Yinshan Mountains and the Daxinganling Mountains.The elevation distribution is mainly between 500m and 1500m.In terms of urban areas,the fire situation in Hulunbeier,Erdos and Xing'an League cities after 2000 The most serious.(2)The number and density of forest fires and the conditions of seven meteorological factors in the main forest fire occurrence areas in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(average temperature,average relative humidity,monthly average precipitation,monthly average wind speed,monthly average sunshine,accumulated monthly temperature difference,and monthly humidity)There is a certain degree of correlation in the difference,but the degree of correlation varies greatly.(3)Using the data from 2000 to 2017,the negative binomial and zero-expansion negative binomial models of forest fire occurrence frequency,forest fire occurrence density and forest fire over-fire area were established.The 2018 data were used for comparative analysis and found to be relative to negative binomial.The model,the three zero-expansion negative binomial model,yields higher accuracy.(4)According to the comprehensive analysis of all fire data from 2000 to 2017,establish the forest fire occurrence frequency index and the forest fire overfire area index,and then comprehensively set the Inner Mongolia forest fire risk comprehensive assessment index.(5)The Inner Mongolia Fire Insurance Composite Index is used to classify the forest fire risk situation.Taking Hulunbeier City as an example,the meteorological factor data predicted by the weather network is used to evaluate the fire occurrence in March of the city.The results show that the predicted forest fire risk rating in Hulunbeier in March is Class I,the fire risk rating is lower.