Country Risk Assessment Of Forestry Foreign Investment In China

Chinese has become the world's largest producer of forest products,but the development of forestry industry is restricted by resource constraints.In order to make full use of the international market of forest resources,more and more China enterprises choose to go abroad to engage in foreign investment and cooperation in forestry.In the process of foreign direct investment,identify and analyze the country risk that enterprises are facing is an important guarantee.This paper uses the case of Heilongjiang Bai Shan Lin Wood Co.Ltd.invest in Guyana to analysis of the country risk in Chinese forestry investment,then build a set of country risk evaluation in Chinese forestry foreign investment,select the relevant data of 30 countries in 2009-2015,calculate their risks and classify the scores of 30 countries into four categories of lowest risk,lower risk,higher risk and highest risk by principal component analysis.By using the BP algorithm to construct a suitable neural network,this paper predicted the country risk of 30 countries and the results are well matched.The empirical results show that the BP neural network has little error in the 2015 national risk prediction results compared to the actual calculation results.Therefore,the existing BP neural network can be used to predict the future country risk.