Construction And Application Of Carbon Storage Forecasting Model System For Larch Plantation In Heilongjiang Province

Based on the data of two plots(2005,2010)in the fixed plots of larch plantations in Heilongjiang Province,this study constructed a carbon reserve prediction system for larch plantations in Heilongjiang Province based on the stand growth and harvest model.The system can predict the forest stand factors and forest carbon stocks in the forest.At the same time,this study considers that natural factors such as different geographical environments will have a certain impact on the accumulation of carbon reserves,so the regional and age groups are added as dummy variables to some models in the prediction system.According to the established models and the way of calculating the operating number table,the carbon storage table of larch plantation in Heilongjiang Province was compiled,and the mature age of forest carbon storage under different site conditions and different initial planting densities was estimated.By comparing and discussing the variation law of carbon storage maturity,it provides a theoretical basis for forestry production with carbon sink as the management purpose.The research results show that the constructed carbon stock prediction basic model system has good stability and prediction accuracy.The accuracy of the model after adding dummy variables has also been improved to some extent,which proves that the system can provide a good foundation for subsequent research.Through the prepared carbon storage table,the average growth of carbon stocks in each period of the forest can be calculated to determine the mature age of carbon stocks.By comparing the maturity of carbon storage,it can be found that when the site class index is 16m and the initial planting density is 2200 plants/hm~2,the carbon storage mature ages of region 1 to region 6 are 29a,31a,30a,29a,32a,32a,respectively.The average growth of carbon storage was 1.34t/hm~2·a,1.24t/h12·a,1.27t/hm~2·a,1.36t/hm~2·a,1.15t/hm~2·a and 1.13t/hm~2·a,respectively.Taking region 1 as an example,when the initial planting density of forest stands is 2200 plants/hm~2,the mature ages of forest carbon storages at the site class index of 16m,18m and 20m are 29a,25a and 22a,respectively.The average growth of carbon storage was 1.34t/hm~2 a,1.36t/hm~2·a and 1.31t/hm~2·a,respectively.At the same time,in the region 1 with the site class index of 16m,the stand with the initial planting density of 2200 plants/hm~2 will reach the carbon storage mature at 29a;and the stand with the initial planting density of 3300 plants/hm~2 will reach the carbon at 24a.The above results prove that the order of carbon sequestration in six regions of Heilongjiang Province is from strong to weak:eastern slope area of Zhangguangcailing,northern slope area of Xiaoxing'anling,western slope area of Zhangguangcailing,southern slope area of Xiaoxing'anling,Wandashan area,and plain area.At the same time,when the other conditions arc the same,the better the stand quality of the stand,the earlier the age of the larch plantation reaches the maturity of carbon storage;the greater the initial planting density of the stand,the earlier the carbon reserve will mature.