| China's economic development has entered a new stage during the 13~thh Five-year Plan period,our country is facing opportunities and challenges.Exploring the new industries that have considerable market potential is the only way to maintain sustained and steady economic growth.As the basic industry of China,agriculture is the endogenous driving force for economic growth,whose stable scientific development should be ensured to lay the foundation for economic development.Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,China has always regarded the issue of“agriculture,rural areas and farmers”as the top priority.The agriculture of the new era is faced with many problems that need to be solved,such as structural adjustment,agricultural transformation,production optimization,system improvement,and so on.As one of the most crucial indicator to measure the progress of agricultural development,agricultural TFP play a of vital importance role in rational allocation of factors,scientific optimization of scale,and effective guidance of technology.The agricultural production process is influenced by both human factors and natural factors.Extreme weather events have a great influence on them as a natural factor.In order to analyze the impact factors of agricultural TFP more comprehensively,this paper incorporates the influence caused by extreme weather events.The Yangtze River Basin is the third largest river basin in the world,which has a variety of climate types.In addition,it has a wide geographical area and a large population.It is an important grain producing area in China.The Yangtze River Economic Belt,an important economic belt of China,is also located here.The research on the trend of extreme climate events is representative,and it also has considerable research value and practical significance.This paper chooses the Yangtze River Basin as the study area,and through the spatio-temporal analysis of agricultural TFP,its decomposition indicators and extreme climate indicators,it has obtained the characteristics of its changes in the past 30 years.Then the agricultural TFP is correlated with the extreme temperature index and the extreme precipitation index,and the influence degree of each extreme climate index on the agricultural TFP is analyzed.Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given according to the relevant situation.The main research contents are as follows:After collecting,analyzing,and collating the relevant statistical data of each provinces,cities and districts included in the Yangtze River Basin,the relevant input and output data related to 1986-2015 are obtained.In this paper,the DEA-Malmqiust model is adopted to calculate the agricultural TFP and its decomposition indicators,which reveals the inter-annual variation trend,the spatial distribution characteristics of the mean value and the spatial distribution characteristics of the agricultural TFP change trend over the past 30 years.The calculation results indicated some conclusions in terms of the whole region which is as following:The technological progress is the main driving force for the growth of agricultural TFP;the influence of pure technical efficiency on technical efficiency is greater than the impact of scale efficiency on technical efficiency;the spatial distribution of agricultural TFP and the spatial distribution of changing trends have significant differences.Through the analysis and evaluation of the static benefits at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan,we can have a clearer understanding of the income status on the current scale and where need to be improved of the provinces(cities)in the Yangtze River Basin.By extracting and sorting the meteorological data of the site,16 extreme temperature indicators and 11 extreme precipitation indicators were calculated by RClimDex.Then,the inter-annual variability of these indicators and the spatial distribution characteristics of the trend in picture elements are analyzed.It proves that the frequency of extreme high temperature events in the Yangtze River Basin has become higher in the past 30 years,and the frequency of extreme low temperature events has become lower,which is consistent with the global warming trend.Additionally,the frequency of occurrence of drought in the Yangtze River Basin and the frequency of occurrence of heavy precipitation show an upward trend.There are significant differences in spatial distribution of trends of different indicators.Correlation analysis was conducted between agricultural TFP and 27 extreme climate indicators.Concerning the whole region,the duration of cold weather,R10mm precipitation,and R20mm precipitation has great impact on the result.When classified with climate,the impact of extreme precipitation events on agricultural TFP is also higher than that of extreme temperature events.Through specific analysis,there are significant spatial differences in the impact of different extreme climate events on agricultural TFP,which may be related to climate conditions,topography,and the patterns of agricultural production.Theologically,there is less correlation between extreme weather events and agricultural TFP,but the experimental result shows relatively higher correlation.This phenomenon may be caused by the human regulation on agriculture,which to some extent weaken their impact.According the results,we summarize the following suggestions:Long term speaking,agricultural infrastructure and technological development should be built and developed for extreme climate events with greater regional impacts.For different regions,it is necessary to adapt local conditions,improve local agricultural policies with specialties,and develop characteristics of agriculture,forestry,fishery and animal husbandry.Cultivate professional agricultural practitioners,strengthen professional training for leading cadres;forecast climate change,improve early warning and emergency measures;promote the promotion of new agricultural technologies,realize agricultural modernization,scale,and optimize industrial structure. |
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