Construction Of Early Warning System For Toxin Pollution Of Fusarium Graminearum

In recent years,due to the influence of climate and farming system,the occurrence range of wheat scab in Anhui is expanding,and the frequency of serious occurrence is increasing,which not only leads to the reduction of wheat production,but also seriously affects food safety.In this paper,a prediction system of wheat scab toxin pollution was established on the basis of database construction and disease prediction.The study achieved the following main results:1.The basic database of toxin pollution early warning of wheat scab was establishedThe prediction database of toxin pollution of Fusarium graminearum was established by using MySQL database management system,including five sub-databases,such as spatial database,meteorological data,systematic investigation field database,general investigation field database and toxin content database.2.The early warning system of toxin pollution caused by Fusarium graminearum was constructedThe early warning system of wheat scab virus pollution was established by using thinkphp framework and phpstorm editor combined with MySQL database management system.The system mainly has five functional modules:data reporting,data query,disease prediction,toxin prediction and system maintenance.In the data reporting module,the disease data are reported directly by the county-level plant protection stations,while the meteorological data and toxin data are uniformly reported by the system administrator.The data query module sets up three query methods,which can view the reported data,urge the unreported data,and feedback and trace the error data.In the disease prediction module,two prediction methods are established,such as meteorological similar year analysis and comprehensive prediction.The intelligent prediction of disease combined with expert experience improves the accuracy.Toxin prediction module:establish the relationship model between different levels of diseased ear rate(y:diseased panicle rate)and diseased panicle rate(x:diseased panicle rate).The model of the relationship between the proportion of first-grade diseased ear and diseased ear rate is as follows:y=0.489x+2.128,R~2=0.867;The second-grade:y=0.277x-0.737,R~2=0.862;The third-grade:y=0.217x-0.362,R~2=0.854;The fourth-grade:y=0.365x-1.075,R~2=0.915;On the basis of disease prediction,a toxin prediction model was established by using the proportion of diseased ear rate of different disease grades,yield loss and toxin production of different disease panicle toxins,and the toxin prediction system was applied.The system maintenance module can realize the management and technical service of the system application by the system administrator.3.Reexamination of early warning system for toxin pollution of Fusarium graminearumThe actual test data of Mengcheng,Fengtai,Feidong,Tongcheng,Susong counties and Ningguo city in 2019 were used to check back the early warning system of wheat scab toxin pollution.The disease prediction accuracy of the wheat scab toxin pollution early warning system is 85%,and the toxin prediction results are consistent with the measured values,and the measured values are within the range of predicted values,which proves that the prediction of the system is reliable.4.Application of early warning system for toxin pollution of Fusarium graminearumThe early warning system is used to predict the occurrence trend and toxin pollution of wheat scab in 2020.The results show that wheat scab will occur slightly in Mengcheng,yongqiao and Huaiyuan counties,light in Huoqiu,and moderate in Fengtai and Tongcheng counties.It is predicted that the DON content in wheat in Mengcheng,Fengqiao,Fengtai,Huaiyuan,Huoqiu and Tongcheng is 2.35-7.22?g/kg?13.53-35.08?g/kg?633.4-1461.49?g/kg?3.28-9.66?g/kg?103.47-246.15?g/kg and 1042.19-2393.36?g/kg,it can provide reference for the timely prevention and control of scab in various places.