Research On The Influence Of Urbanization On Livestock Product Consumption

China's urbanization develops very fast.The income of urban and rural residents keep on increasing.And the total consumption of livestock products and their structure have undergone significant changes.Previous literature shows that urbanization has a positive effect on the growth of livestock product consumption.In order to clarify the mechanism by which urbanization affects the consumption of livestock products,we measured the impact from urbanization on the consumption of livestock products.In this thesis,we systematically reviewed domestic and foreign researches on urbanization,livestock product consumption,and the impact of urbanization on livestock product consumption.We analyzed the historical development trend of livestock product consumption from 1982 to 2018.The impact of urbanization on the consumption of livestock products was explored.Two simulation programs were designed through CASM to simulate the growth and structural effects of urbanization on the consumption of livestock products.The simulation results show that with the continuous improvement of the urban level,the total consumption of livestock products will continue to grow in the future.The total demand for livestock consumption under different scenario varies.The growth of livestock consumption under the high-speed urbanization growth scenario(SIM)is faster than that under the low-speed growth plan(BASE).From the perspective of the consumption structure of livestock products,the proportion of livestock products with higher fat and energy content decreases(pork),while the proportion of protein-rich livestock products(cattle,mutton,eggs)increases.The proportion of livestock products(milk)containing protein and trace elements would increase significantly.Livestock products(poultry)with less fat and less environmental protection pressure have fastest growth rate in meat consumption.The growth rate of poultry meat will exceed of milk in the future.In the future,livestock products of rural residents will grow faster than rural areas.However,the overall consumption of livestock products in cities and towns is more than that in cities and towns.Our conclusion makes sense for policy design.The production structure of animal husbandry should be adjusted to optimize the production layout of animal products.It is also important to build a standardized production system.Three-dimensional planting structure of grain-economy – feed should be promoted.Market circulation management for livestock products should be improved.More attention should be paid to rural animal product market and consumers' welfare.The deep processing of animal products should be developed further.Healthier consumption mode of animal products should be advocated.By so doing,consumers' demand expectations guidance policies should be constructed.The government should raise income of rural residents and narrow the gap between urban and rural consumption.The quality and safety management of livestock products should be strengthened to ensure residents' quality consumption needs.