Research On Spatiotemporal Trend Of Brucellosis In Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Objective:Brucellosis is a zoonotic infectious disease that is widely distributed throughout the world.Since the founding of the People's Republic of China,many provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central govern-ment have been suffering from brucellosis frequently.Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is a high incidence area of brucellosis.As a result,brucellosis not only hinders the development of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia,but also endangers the health of people and public health there.In order to analyze the incidence of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia in recent years and facilitate the timely adjustment of the prevention and control measures of brucellosis,it is necessary to study the spatiotemporal trend of brucellosis.Methods:Firstly,the thesis makes a descriptive statistical analysis of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Then,the SAR model was used to explore the spatial autocorrelation of the incidence of brucellosis and the a multiscale GWR model was established to study the spatial non-stationary effect of meteorology factors on the cumulative incidence of brucellosisResults:The first two age groups of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia are 19-40 years old and 40-60 years old.And the majority of occupations of brucellosis patients are farmers and herdsmen,accounting for 88.54%,and the ratio of men and women is 2.34:1,with a significant difference(p<0.05).The time trend is to increase and then decrease,and the annual incidence of brucellosis reached its peak in 2010(19141 cases)The annual incidence features seasonality,with the highest season in summer.The spatial accumulation of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia is mostly in the central and mid-eastern regions,and it rarely occurs in the western region.The temporal aggregation is mostly from February to August every year.The incidence of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia has a spatial autocorrelation,with Moran' I value of 0.329 and p value of 0.001<0.05.The number of cattle at the end of the year had no significant effect on the incidence of brucellosis(?=0.05).The fitting effect of the spatial autoregressive model is slightly better than the linear regression model with R2=0.591>0.451.The influence of meteorological factors on the cumulative incidence of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has a general spatial non-stationarity.And there is a big difference between high-onset month and low-onset month.Good fitting results of the multiscale GWR model can reflect the real situationConclusion:Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region needs to increase propaganda and education on the prevention of brucellosis among farmers and herders,and strengthen the quarantine of livestock during peak tourism and Lunar New Year.Encourage the development of animal husbandry to promote other industries and improve the people's economic level and social medical level.The spatial non-stationarity of the influence of meteorological factors on the cumulative incidence of brucellosis has prompted relevant departments to adjust the prevention and control measures in various places in a timely manner,and to formulate corresponding plans before high and low incidence months The SAR model and the multi-scale GWR model are feasible in the study of brucellosis,both of which can draw results consistent with the facts and can provide feasible and effective suggestions.