| Objective: To understand the current situation of incidence and level of detection and treatment of tuberculosis reported in the Corps.To grasp the Epidemic trends of tuberculosis in the Corps and to explore the risk factors of tuberculosis,so as to provide scientific basis for further strengthening the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis in the Corps.Methods: Using descriptive epidemiology to analyze the prevalence and prevention of tuberculosis in the Corps,and using Excel to make relevant statistical tables and graphs.The ARIMA model was fitted by R software and the forecast was analyzed.Based on the case control study,the application software SPSS 20.0 was used to analyze single factor and multifactor nonconditional logistic regression.Results:(1)The2009-2016 Regiment reported a total of 16,602 cases of tuberculosis,of which the highest percentage of tuberculosis in Duyang was 5,244(31.59%),with a high incidence among men,the highest among the 70-80 age group(3,485)and the lowest among children aged0-10(46).The third division(Kashi)has the highest incidence,well above the rest of the regiment,at 153.89 per 100,000.(2)The number of sputum collected was 17,927 and the rate of sputum collected was 34.35%.The total number of patients was 10,014;The highest proportion of patients from the source was referred,about 38%.The tracking rate of non-stop mechanism was 76.30%,the tracking rate was 68.10%and the overall rate was70.00%.The average screening rate for close contacts was 92.99%.(3)The optimal ARIMA model was determined by the white noise test and the stationary test,and the results showed that the incidence of tuberculosis in 2017 was lower than that in 2016.(4)The results of multi-factor analysis showed that the OR and 95%CI of the risk of tuberculosis at tertiary level and above were 1.958(0.846-4.528)compared with primary school and below.The OR values of 2,000-3,999 per month and 4,000 per month and95%CI of 0.268(0.142-0.508)and 0.314(0.151-0.655)of the average monthly income per household compared to<2,000 per month.The OR values of 0.876(0.202-3.797),0.169(0.056-0.505)and 95 per cent CI for the risk of pulmonary tuberculosis in the living space compared to the crowded living space.Ventilation effects,BCG vaccination history,OR values for exposure to tuberculosis in poultry and 95%CI were 2.349(1.263-4.369),2.913(1.375-6.173)and 2.148(1.234-3.740)respectively.Conclusion: The incidence of tuberculosis reported by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps has been declining in 2009-2016,and the level of overall patient detection in the Corps has been constantly improving.However,there is still a wide gap between the target of achieving the 13 th Five-Year Plan for the Prevention and Control of Tuberculosis.The results of ARIMA model can be used to simulate the epidemic trend of tuberculosis in Xinjiang Crops.In addition,the influence factors of tuberculosis should be taken into account,tuberculosis publicity and education work should be done,the corresponding measures and strategies should be formulated in time to reduce the incidence of tuberculosis in the Crops area. |
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