| Objectives To analysis the mainly composed pathogen distribution and epidemiological characteristics of Febrile espiratory syndrome patients in Gansu Province from 2009 to 2015;To quick judge the type of pathogen infection,by using discriminant analysis with Febrile espiratory syndrome patients' the clinical symptoms,biochemistry test results and pathogen detection results;To quantitative analysis the meteorological factors influence to FRS incidence in Lanzhou City.Methods Collecting information of FRS patients from thirteen monitoring hospitals in Gansu Province from 2009 to 2015,descriptive epidemiological method was used to understand the mainly composed pathogen distribution and epidemiological characteristics.Based on hypothesis testing of clinical symptoms and biochemistry test results from different type of pathogen infection,Fisher and Bayes discriminant function was developed to identify which type of pathogen infection.Generalized additive model was used to explore the meteorological factors effects on FRS cases.Results 1.There were 7081 FRS cases collected in Gansu Province from 2009 to 2015,the detection rate of any pathogen was 100%,the positive rate was 31.46%;the detection rate of any virus was 91.89%,the positive rate was 23.37%;the detection rate of any bacteria was 30.08%,the positive rate was 32.37%.The detection rate of whole pathogen was 10.07%,the positive rate was 75.04%;the detection rate of whole virus was 36.38%,the positive rate was29.70%;the detection rate of whole bacteria was 10.39%,the positive rate was 61.14%.2.Rhinovirus was the most in whole virus test,the constituent ratio was 6.60%,the next was human influenza virus,the constituent ratio was 5.51%;Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most in whole bacteria test,the constituent ratio was 36.82%,the next was streptococcus pneumoniae and haemophilus inf luenzae mixed infection,the constituent ratio was 5.51%;From the whole pathogen,treptococcus pneumoniae was the most,the constituent ratio was 22.86%,the next was treptococcus pneumoniae and haemophilus influenzae mixed infectioned,the constituent ratio was 16.42%,the third was human influenza virus,the constituent ratio was 3.79%.3.The positive rate of human influenza virus was reducing from year by year.The distribution of the positive rate of rhinovirus was like”V”,got lowest in 2012 then rised.The positive rate of streptococcus pneumoniae,and mixed infection with haemophilus influenzae increaseed year by year.4.There were two infection peaks for streptococcus pneumoniae infected,one was from August to October,the other was January to March,and the age group of 25~years was susceptible individuals.The infection peak for haemophilus influenzae infected was from August to October,and the age group of 5~years was susceptible individuals.The infection peak for streptococcus pneumoniae and haemophilus inf luenzae mixed infection was from August to October,and the age group of 1~years was susceptible individuals.The infection peak for human influenza virus infected was from November to January,and the age group of 5~years was susceptible individuals.The infection peak for Rhinovirus infected was from August to October,and the age group of 25~years was susceptible individuals.5.After statistical analysising,Fisher and Bayes Discriminant function was developed included eight independent var iables such as temperature,Neutrophil ratio and so on.Fisher Y1 function explained 56.8% of all var iation,Y2 function explained 43.2%.The accuracy of Initial validation was 42.9%,accuracy of cross validation was 39.1% in Bayes function.6.Fitting the exposure reflect relationship between meteorological factors and daily FRS cases by GAM,the daily lowest temperature which lagged 2 days has the greatest impact on the daily number of FRS cases when the RR was 1.0173(95%CI:1.0045-1.0304);the daily maximum temperature has the greatest impact on the daily number of FRS cases when the RR was 1.0304(95%CI:1.0008-1.0608);the daily relative humidity lagged 4 days has the greatest impact on the daily number of FRS cases when the RR was 1.0062(95%CI:1.0032-1.0093).Conclusions 1.The detection rate of bacteria was low in Gansu Province.The mainly composed pathogens were found which were rhinovirus,human influenza virus,streptococcus pneumoniae and haemophilus influenzae.2.The infection peak and susceptible individuals differed from different pathogen infected.From August to October the age group of 25~years should prevent streptococcus pneumoniae and rhinovirus infection,the age group of 5~years should prevent haemophilus influenzae infection,and the age group of 1~years should prevent streptococcus pneumoniae and haemophilus influenzae mixed infection.From November to January the age group of 5~years should prevent human influenza virus infection.3.Temperature,neutrophil ratio,leucocyte number,lymphocyte percentage and other four independent variables inc luded in Fisher and Bayes Discriminant function to identify type of pathogen infection.4.Fitting the exposure reflect relationship between meteorological factors and daily FRS cases by GAM,the daily maximum temperature has the greatest impact on the daily number of FRS cases,and the daily relative humidity lagged 4 days has the greatest impact on the daily number of FRS cases. |
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