The Study On The Current Situation And Tendency Of Health Resource Development During The 13^th Five-year Period In Huangshi City

Objective:The aim of current study was to investigate the current situation of health resources allocation in Huangshi city and to analyze the development tendency,therefore providing scientific reference for policy formulation and adjustment.Methods:Multiple methods include literature research,the description research and the statistical analysis were used in this thesis.(1)literature research:collected related literature at home and abroad,obtained related theory and practice material of demand and utilization in domestic and foreign about medical services in hospital;(2)the descriptive research:analyzed the situation of population and economic development and health resources present situation of Huangshi city,including the total number of medical institutions,the data of beds and health technical personnel in health care institutions.Lorenz curves,Gini coefficient were used to analyze the fairness.(3)the statistical analysis:GM(1,1)model and model of quivalent dimensions addition GM(1,1)were used to predict the data of census register population、resident population、the beds and health technical personnel in health care institutions.Results:In the 12th five-year period,total health resources in Huangshi city rose gradually.The per capita resources was better than average level in Hubei,except the per capita number of licensed doctors and assistant doctors.But there was certain disparity in Wuhan city.The health resources distribution was uneven around the whole city.Too many health resources focused on the urban area,while health resources in Daye city and Yangxin county were obviously insufficient.The population fairness of health resource allocation was superior to the geographic fairness in Huangshi city,and the fairness of health agency distribution was superior to fairness of the bed and the medical technical personnel distribution.Comparing different forecast models,quivalent dimensions addition GM(1,1)was proved to be more suitable for predicting small sample data.And the precision is higher.According to the population forecast that by 2020 census register population will reach 2.8 million,resident population will reach 2.51 million people.According to prediction of total health resources,the number of beds in the health care institutions of Huangshi city will reach 18 thousands in 2020.The per capita number of beds will reach 7.2.The number of licensed doctors and assistant doctors will reach 6938.The number of registered nurses will reach 9829.The population of licensed doctors、assistant doctors and the registered nurses in every thousand resident populations will reach 2.79 and 3.90.Recommendations and suggestions:Firstly,the government should play the leading role.And allocate health resources reasonably,control the unreasonable expansion of medical institutions in central city,improve the rural residents’ average occupancy of health resources.Secondly,we should strengthen human construction greatly,take a variety of incentives and trainings to improve the enthusiasm of medical technical staff.Thirdly,the goals of health resources allocation during the 13th Five-Year Period is relatively conservative,we should perfect health resource allocation above the goals.Fourthly,during the 13th Five-Year Period,we should focus on the development of maternal and child health care.The number of beds in maternal and child health centers should be increased.What’s more,medical organizations should recruit elites who specialize in obstetrics and gynecology、pediatrics and enhance the medical treatment technique level.