| Purpose::Using statistical software such as Excel 2007 and ArcGIS(10.2)to descriptive analysis of prevalence and characteristics of hepatitis E from 2006——2014 in Hunan Province,and then using ArcGIS(10.2),SatSCan(9.1)and other software to explore the temporal and spatial distribution of hepatitis E features.Finally,the time dynamic change trend of HEV was studied by the seasonal autoregressive moving average model(SARIMA),and provide evidence for prevention and control of HEV.Methods:1.the data of HEVcases from 2006—2014 were collected from disease the Information Management System of China Center for Disease Control and Prevention.2.the distribution characteristics of Hepatitis E:using Excel2003,ArcGIS(10.2)and other software,through the descriptive research method and visual display technology based on the geographic information system(GIS),the distribution and epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis E were analyzed from the aspects of time,region,sex,age and occupation.3.the temporal and spatial distribution of hepatitis E:the spatial autocorrelation analysis and time-space clustering analysis were carried out by using ArcGIS(10.2)and SaTScan(9.1).4.Predictive model of hepatitis E:Finally,using SPSS13.0,the SARIMA model was used to predictthe the incidence of hepatitis E from 2006—2014 in Hunan,with the number of months of 2015 to assess its forecast effect.Results:1.the distribution characteristics of hepatitis E:A total of 7124 HEV cases were reported from 2006—2014 in Hunan province,with an average annual incidence rate of 1.22/100,000.the incidence rate of the overall upward trend,most of cities was the first increase and then decreased.The ratio of male cases to females was 2.95:1.the cases distributed among all age groups,with the most cases(25.77%)in the 40?years group,as for occupational distribution,the peasants ranked the first,with 3858 cases and accounting for 54.15%,with regard to the regional distribution,Huaihua City had the highest incidence.While;Loudi City had the lowest.2.the temporal and spatial distribution of hepatitis E:data from the global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was space autocorrelation on the HEV incidence rates in countries,a total of 31countries were found in the high-high region,results from the space-time scan showed 7 space-time clustering areas,including those most likely in the western Hunan area(2012--2014);the secondary clusters in northern Hunan areas(2011--2014).3.Establishment of SAIRMA model for predicting the incidence of Hepatitis E:monthly incidence of Hepatitis E in Hunan from 2006 to 2014 has a long-term feature of increasing and seasonal trend.The relative error of the SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 was smaller than the other models,all the reported cases were falling in the 95%confidence range of the forecasted cases,which was better fitted the incidence in the past nine year.The predicted data in 2015 were consistent with the trend of the actual incidenceConclusions:1.the incidence rate of hepatitis E was on the rise from 2006-2014 in Hunan Province,the focus of the population mainly concentrated in the elderly farmers.2.the incidence of hepatitis E mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions of Hunan Province,and the incidence of hepatitis E has a obvious regional distribution,there are positive autocorreclation space,31 high-value aggregation countries(cities,districts),the northern of Hunan is characterized by a high degree of aggregation and wide spread,and has a tendency to spread to western.3.The incidence trend of hepatitis E could predicted through SARIMA precisely.The model can be used to make short-term forecasting for prevention and control of hepatitis E... |
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