The Clinical Risk Factors And Prediction Model Of Brain Metastases In Patients With Small Cell Lung Cancer

Background and Purpose: Small Cell Lung Cancer accounts for about 15% of the total number of lung cancer which is highest incidence of brain metastases in all type of lung cancer.Once brain metastases occurs,the median survival time of patients will be significantly shortened.If not treated,the median survival time is only 1-2 months.Even for patients who are effective in fist-line chemotherapy,the probability of brain metastases will still be as high as 80% in 2 years.Brain metastasis is also an important cause of recurrence,metastases and death of small cell lung cancer.Therefore,it is important to early detect high-risk group of brain metastases and prevent the brain metastases.A retrospective study was to decompose the risk factors of brain metastases and construce a prediction model of brain metastases in small cell lung cancer.At the same time,PCI prolongs the patient's progression free survival time(PFS)(P=0.002).Methods: 118 cases of Small Cell Lung Cancer of the first affiliated hospital of Guangzhou Medical University were analyzed retrospectively.We collected and analyzed the preliminary diagnosis clinical data,including gender,age,physical status,primary tumor location,staging,tumor markers,anemia,hyponatremia,distant metastasis and collected prophylactic craniocerebral irradiation(PCI)treatment.Single factor COX regression analysis and multiple factor COX regression analysis were used to study the clinical risk factors involved and analyses the effect of PCI on the risk of brain metastases in small cell lung cancer.Using these clinical parameters and the coefficients obtained in multifactor analysis,we will establish a risk prediction model for the brain metastases of small cell lung cancer.Results: A total of 44 patients had brain metastases during the follow-up period,accounting for 37.3% of the study population.The statistical results of single factor showed that smoking index>400,extensive stage,PS >= 2,NSE higher than the normal range,LDH higher than the normal range,hyponatremia,lymph node metastasis were the risk factors for brain metastasis in small cell lung cancer patients,multiple factor analysis showed that smoking index> 400(P...