Epidemiological Characteristics And Time Series Analysis Of Hemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome In Jilin Province

Objective:The epidemic situation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jilin Province from 2007 to 2017,mouse surveillance data from 2009 to 2017,and case investigation data from 2013 to 2017 were collected and analyzed,to understand the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,the distribution of host animals,the rate of virus infection,and the clinical symptoms,laboratory test results,past history and contact history of related factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.The ARIMA model was established to explore the application of this model in predicting the epidemic trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,and to provide a reference basis for the further formulation and improvement of strategies and measures for the prevention and control of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.Methods:The general epidemic situation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,three distributions,case investigation and mouse surveillance data in Jilin Province since 2007 were statistically analyzed using software such as Excel 2013 and IBM SPSS 24.0.The appropriate ARIMA model was established with R statistical analysis software and the monthly incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in 2017 was predicted.Results:1.A total of 8265 cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome were reported in Jilin Province in 2007-2017,and the cumulative number of cases ranged from 514 to 1062 cases per year.The incidence ranged from 1.87 / 100000 to 3.90 / 100000,with 40 deaths,and a mortality rate of 0.48%.The highest incidence was 3.90 / 100000 in 2007,and the lowest was 1.87 / 100000 in 2016.2.The epidemic situation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jilin Province showed the bimodal distribution.A large peak occurred in spring and summer?Mar to June?during which the number of cases reported accounted for 41.2% of total cases,and a small peak occurred in winter?November to January?during which the number of cases reported accounted for 26.9% of total cases3.The distribution of epidemic situation in Jilin Province was unbalanced from 2007 to 2017,and cases occurred in 9 cities of the province.The highest incidence was in Baishan City?6.71 / 100000?,and the lowest in Songyuan City?1.06 / 100000?4.Age distribution data showed that the incidence occurred in all age groups,mainly in 25-,30-,35-,40-,45-,50-,and 55-age groups?6483 cases?,accounting for 83.76% of the total number of cases.The proportion of 40 years to age group?1169 cases?was the highest,followed by the 45-age group?1161 cases?,accounting for 14.14% and 14.05%,respectively;The data of sex distribution showed that the number of cases in male?6604 cases?was higher than that in female?1661 cases?,and the ratio of male and female was 3.98:1.The data of occupational distribution showed that farmers have the highest number of cases,accounting for 61.55% of the total number of cases.5.A total of 2847 cases were investigated in this study.The results of the past history and family environment,and history of exposure to related factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome showed that: there were 1510 cases?56.6%?with sundries in the hospital,835 cases?31.3%?with rodent in the room,637 cases?23.9%?with rodent prevention equipment in food and grain,1129 cases?41.9%?with rat or mouse excreta in the workplace,539 cases?20.0%?with rodent exposure within 1 month before the onset of the disease,and 539 cases?20.0%?with rodent excretion in the workplace.6.Rattus norvegicus was the dominant species in residential areas from 2009 to 2017,accounting for 82.17%.The other species were Apodemus agrarius,others,Apodemus speciosus,accounting for 9.99%,7.82% and 0.02% of the total number of rats,respectively.Apodemus norvegicus was the dominant species in the field,accounting for 36.79%.The other species were Rattus norvegicus,others,Apodemus speciosus,accounting for 33.02%,15.40% and 14.78% of the total number of rats,respectively.The composition of rat species in different years was tested by Chi-square test.The results showed that there was significant difference in species composition between residential area and field in 2009-2017?P< 0.05?.7.The actual month incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in 2017 fell into the 95% confidence interval of the predicted value,indicating that the time series arima model could be applied to predict the month incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jilin province.Conclusions:1.From 2007 to 2017,the epidemic situation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jilin Province showed a general downward trend,and the time distribution mainly showed a bimodal distribution with spring and summer,winter as the peak of onset.2.The high incidence population of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome was 20-59 years old male,and the occupational distribution was mainly among farmers.Cases were found in all nine surveillance sites.3.There were debris,hay food and so on in the yard,there was no anti-rat equipment in grain,and there was rat or rat excreta in the room,exposure to rats within 1 month before the onset of the disease account for a higher proportion in the family environment and history of exposure to related factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.4.The infection sources of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jilin province are mainly Rattus norvegicus and Apodemus agrarius.The density and composition of rat species in residential area and field are obviously different.5.The ARIMA?1,0,0??0,1,1?₁₂ model can be used to predict the month incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jilin province.