Preliminary Study On Risk Factors And Risk Assessment Prediction Model Of Female Breast Cancer In Chongqing

Objective:Determined by case-control study in chongqing urban women breast cancer risk factors,to establish suitable for chongqing city female breast cancer characteristics and convenient and practical evaluation model and prediction system,promote the city female breast cancer risk prediction and intervention measures of implementation,make city breast cancer screening with better cost-effective application and all the crowd,to improve the early detection of breast cancer rate and cure rate.Method:1.A case-control design was adopted.Breast cancer patients in a hospital in chongqing were selected as the study subjects,and normal women without malignant tumor history and symptoms in the urban cancer early diagnosis and early treatment registration center of the hospital were selected as the study subjects.EpiData3.1 software was used for double data entry to establish the database,and SAS9.4 statistical software was used for statistical analysis.Age was used as the matching factor,and factors with statistical significance(P<0.05)were screened out by multivariate conditional Logistic regression analysis as risk factors for breast cancer,and the corresponding OR value was calculated.2.Based on the results of case-control studies,OR values were converted into corresponding scores,and the scores were used for logistic regression analysis to construct a simple risk assessment model for breast cancer,draw a risk assessment chart for breast cancer,and evaluate the predictive effectiveness of the established risk assessment model with ROC curve and calibration diagram.Result:1.The single factor analysis showed BMI,cultural degree,occupational exposure to harmful substances,the average intake of fresh vegetables,fresh fruit,the average intake,the average intake of meat,and the average intake of coarse grains,eating cold or hot,dry diet dilute degrees,food taste level recorded,dietary fat,pickled dry foods,living environment air pollution situation,cook lampblack,passive smoking,alcohol consumption,physical exercise,mental trauma,spirit is depressed,family history of malignancy,menstrual rule,first-time months age,lactation,history of benign breast disease,reproductive system operation history,family history of breast cancer and breast cancer(P < 0.05).2.The results of multivariate analysis showed that BMI,occupational exposure to hazardous substances,passive smoking,mental depression,months of breastfeeding,and history of benign breast diseases were risk factors for breast cancer,and regular drinking of tea and menstruation were protective factors.3.Built the breast cancer risk assessment model with the method of logistic regression,and drew the risk assessment prediction diagram.The area under ROC curve and 95%CI of the model were 0.8939(0.8705,0.914).The cut-off point was 14.78% of the predicted risk value,and higher than 14.78% was a high risk.Conclusion:1.BMI,occupational exposure to hazardous substances,passive smoking,depression,months of breastfeeding,and history of benign breast diseases are risk factors for breast cancer,and regular drinking of tea and menstruation are protective factors.2.The breast cancer risk prediction model constructed in this study has good prediction effect and can provide certain basis for clinical workers to screen breast cancer.