Analysis Of The Epidemiological Characteristics Of Pertussis During 2010-2017 In Binhai New Area,Tianjin

Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pertussis in Tianjin binhai new area,in order to understand the time distribution,regional distribution,population distribution,immunological status of the affected population,and the completion of vaccination of children with pertussis.To master the prevalence and distribution of whooping cough disease in the region,to predict the future incidence of whooping cough in the region,it provides an important reference for preventing and controlling the incidence and spread of whooping cough.Methods:The data used by this research institute,population data comes from the"basic information system"of the disease prevention and disease control information system in China.Tianjin pertussis incidence from the Tianjin center for Disease Control and prevention immunologic planning brief.Pertussis case data comes from the disease control information system"infectious disease report information system",pertussis case epidemiological survey data and vaccination rate data come from the Tianjin immune planning information management system.The epidemiological characteristics of pertussis in Tianjin Binhai New Area from 2010 to 2017 were analyzed by Statistical description method.Using ARIMA model method to predict the incidence of pertussis in Binhai New Area.Results:A total of 342 cases of pertussis were reported in Tianjin Binhai New Area from 2010 to 2017.The incidence rate was 4.78/100,000 in 2017,and there was a significant increase in the incidence rate from 2015 to 2017(?²_??=50.75,P?0.01).The epidemic season of whooping cough is from May to September,the seasonal distribution phenomenon is more obvious in the high years,in 2017 pertussis has been extended the high incidence cycle.The streets with the top five reported cases are Hangzhou Road Street,Tanggu Street,Hujiayuan Street,Dagang Street and Gulin Street.The youngest age is 6 days of birth,the largest 66 years of age,and the largest proportion of cases less than 1 year of age is 213?61.99%?;The composition of the under 3-month-old age group shows an overall upward trend in 2014-2017 in Tianjin Binhai New Area(?²_??=8.14,P?0.01);In 2017,the exclusive rate of whooping cough in the under 1-year-old age group was significantly higher than in 2010-2016,which was 3.12 times higher than in 2014.Incidence in the gender group,except in2015,was higher among women than among men in other years.253 cases?73.98%?is children in the diaspora;From 2014 to 2017,the composition of whooping cough cases in this city has increased year by year,and the composition of in other provinces cases has decreased year by year.210 cases?61.40%?had a history of immunity,and 71 cases?20.76%?had completed four doses of immunization;The proportion of under-inoculation age has an increasing trend year by year,and the difference is statistically significant(?²_??=8.14,P?0.01);Children with a history of immunization have basically been vaccinated on time.Of the reported cases of whooping cough in 2013-2017,113?35.76%?were hospitalized,and the average number of hospital days was 9.42 days;The clinical manifestations of whooping cough cases ranked in the top five were:paroxysmal cough,vomiting,facial redness,suffocation,and chicken ringing;In 125 cases?39.56%?,complications occurred,mainly pneumonia,and the complications increased year by year,and they were statistically significant(?²_??=84.39,P?0.01)In 2010-2017,23 cases of whooping cough were concentrated and 75 outbreaks occurred,of which 21 cases were concentrated in households,and the mode of transmission was mainly adult-infant mode.From 2010 to 2017,the completion rate of Baibai beer vaccination in Binhai New Area in Tianjin was more than 95%,and the first three doses of basic immunization were all more than 99%.The fourth dose of enhanced immunization increased from 95.23%in 2010 to 99.79%in 2017.The difference is statistically significant(?²_??=14.16,P?0.01).The model ARIMA?0,1,2??0,1,1?¹² was established to predict that the incidence of whooping cough in Tianjin Binhai New Area 2018-2019 is still at an ongoing high rate.Conclusion:Combined with the epidemic characteristics of pertussis in Binhai New Area of Tianjin and the ARIMA model prediction,it is found that the incidence of pertussis is gradually increasing,and the completion rate of basic immunization has reached a very high level.Binhai New Area can formulate relevant policies for preventing the incidence of pertussis in this area.First,it can strengthen the laboratory construction in this area.The ELISA and PCR tests of pertussis samples were carried out independently to ensure the basic support of pertussis monitoring.Secondly,the training of basic knowledge of pertussis for medical personnel and community health workers can be carried out extensively,so as to reduce the occurrence of false report of the hundred day cough leakage from the medical point of view.At the same time,it can carry out health education training for high-risk groups and their close contacts,popularize the clinical characteristics of whooping cough,prevention and control methods,the importance of vaccination,and special nursing knowledge after illness.To ensure vaccination coverage and timeliness,to protect vulnerable populations,especially infants and young children in small age groups,and to ensure that basic immunization planning is carried out in an orderly manner.We will regularly monitor the level of protective antibodies against pertussis among healthy people in the Binhai New Area,and step up the monitoring of pertussis communities,so that the prevention,treatment and treatment of pertussis will start from the lowest level of the population and fundamentally reduce the incidence of pertussis.