The Forecast Research Of Painting Market Index Based On WEB Search Data

With the popularization of the Internet and the mobile Internet,art investors often collect information about their target artworks on the Internet before making investment decision,thus providing necessary information support for future investment.That is to say,before the investment behavior,the investment intention of art investors has been shown in the Internet search information.By studying the investors' search keywords on the Internet and combining the characteristics of the painting market,the purpose of predicting investment behavior can be achieved.Aiming at the investment decision process of the investors in painting market,this paper uses network search data to predict the index of modern famous scholars which reflects the actual transaction amount of the painting market.By analyzing the web search data for the forecast of Chinese painting market mechanism,I use Baidu index as a data mining tool,obtaining from July 2006 to June 2018 in the Baidu search engine related to the painting market keyword search volume,synthesize these keywords Baidu index into three composite indexes.By using the time series of related measures,I create web search data for modern famous index prediction model,the main conclusions as follows:(1)Studying the internal theoretical mechanism between the Internet search data and the Chinese painting market from a qualitative perspective.Changing of the attention of investors in the painting market will be reflected through the Internet search data.When investors in the painting market have purchase needs,they will search for relevant information through the Internet,which is reflected in the changes of Internet search indicators.Through Internet search data,we can judge investors' opinions and expectations on the current and future of the painting market.(2)Through the empirical analysis,we create the modern famous index prediction model based on Baidu index building,its goodness-of-fit is 0.89.The increased amount of keyword search will be reflected in the turnover of contemporary and modern famous works.Three synthetic indexes for famous index have a stronger role in modern times,the change of their respective conduction delay of modern famous index is about half a year,so we can half a year have the advance of painting market trading volume,and provide the certain reference value for auction institutions.