Influencing Factors And Forecast Analysis Of Chinese Film Box Office

Whether for film makers,publicity and distribution companies,or ticketing platforms,the influencing factors and predictions of the movie box office are important topics for its related departments.Especially at the current stage,influenced by factors such as the industry environment and the strengthening of capital market supervision,the development of China's film industry has ushered in the “cold winter” period,and may last for a long time.It will be more cautious for companies to issue and produce that affected by their budget.Movies will be more cautious.Therefore,it is important to grasp the influencing factors of the movie box office in advance and the expected box office to optimize the operation of the declaration to guide the cinema lineup and hedge the investment risk.This paper starts from the first day of the box office and the total box office to study the Chinese box office.It is divided into five parts.The first part explains the research background and significance of the article,and conducts a literature review.The second part studies the first day of the box office.The number of people who want to see the number of people establishes the first-day box office formula and forecasts the first-day box office,providing film and television industry practitioners with a convenient way to predict the first-day box office.The third part selects the multiple regression model to conduct empirical analysis of the factors and predictions of the box office of the movie.By screening the appropriate indicators,collecting and sorting out the latest data to describe the statistical analysis from multiple angles,and finally establishing the regression model and forecasting and analyzing the total box office.The fourth part uses the neural network model to conduct empirical research on the box office of the movie,and compares it with the results of multiple regression prediction.The research finds that the regression model can better explain the relationship between the influencing factors and the box office,and the degree of fitting and prediction accuracy of the neural network model is more accurate than regression model.The last part of the paper summarizes the above research and makes recommendations.The research on the influencing factors and predictions of Chinese box office can provide a certain theoretical and empirical basis for related industries,and guide the distribution,promotion and marketing of films.It has certain application value and practical significance.