Research On Resource And Environmental Carrying Capacity Based On PS-DR-DM Model

Resource and environment are the material basis and guarantee for human survival and development.Since the reform and open up,China's rapid industrialization and urbanization have brought problems such as excessive consumption of resource and environmental pollution.Urban agglomerations are the growth poles of regional development,one of the complex areas where various factors are highly mobile,and also the areas where resource and environmental pressure is highly concentrated.The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to form a spatial pattern of resource conservation and environmental protection,and accelerate the reform of the ecological civilization system.Studying the resource and environmental carrying capacity of urban agglomerations is one of the important means to clarify the carrying status of its resource and environment,and to grasp its upper limit of carrying capacity.It is of great significance to promote the implementation of the strategy of ecological civilization and sustainable development in the urban agglomerations.Taking Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration as the research area,and based on the theory of man-land relationship theory,sustainable development theory,urban agglomerations regional structure theory,growth pole theory,this paper defines the concept of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of urban agglomerations and constructs the PS-DR-DM evaluation model of the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the urban agglomerations.Using the state space method to measure and eraly warn the carrying capacity of the Chang-ZhuTan urban agglomeration from 2008 to 2017.Using the BP neural network model to simulate and forecast the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration in 2018-2027 under multiple scenarios.Based on the above research,suggestions for improving resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration are proposed.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the analysis of PSR and other resource and environmental carrying capacity evaluation models,considering the characteristics of the urban agglomerations like resource distribution,element mobility,development and maintenance comprehensively,the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the urban agglomerations PS-DR-DM(Press-Support,Damage-Repair,Develop-Maintain)evaluation model is constructed.And the evaluation index system for the resource and environmental carrying capacity of urban agglomerations that includes 6 secondary indicators and 41 tertiary indicators is also established.(2)From 2008 to 2017,the overall resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration transitions from an overloaded state to a critical overloaded state.The warning level changes from an orange “high warning” state to a blue “low warning” state.The carrying capacity fluctuates "W" shaped trend.In terms of stages,the first stage(2008-2009)is in an overloaded orange “high warning” state and its carrying capacity is on a downward trend,the second stage(2010-2014)is in a critically overloaded yellow “medium warning” state but its carrying capacity is promoted quickly,and the third stage(2015-2017)is still critical overload,but it realizes the transition from the yellow “medium warning” to the blue “low warning” and the carrying capacity increases slowly.(3)The current situation continuation,resource-saving,environmentfriendly and social maintenance four scenarios simulation results show that the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Chang-ZhuTan urban agglomeration achieves the transition from overload to load in 2018-2027.Among four simulation scenarios,the resource-saving scenario is the worst and the social maintenance scenario is the best.(4)To improve the intending resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration,we should do something from the aspects of intensive resource conservation,comprehensive environmental governance,social maintenance improvement and institutional mechanism innovation.