| With the development of "The Belt and Road Initiative",the scale of direct investment in China along the "The Belt and Road Initiative" has been increasing,and the trade with other countries along the route has become more frequent.The plan of "going out" is being implemented.As the global economy is in a slow recovery stage,the growth rate of China’s foreign trade has slowed down,it is necessary to seek a new engine for the expansion of the scale of foreign trade.Existing research results show that OFDI may produce trade creation or trade substitution effects,and institutional distance differences can stimulate and restrict trade.Therefore,based on the perspective of institutional distance difference,this paper explores the trade effects of China’s direct investment in all countries along the belt,and analyzes how to promote the prosperity of international trade through the use of foreign direct investment.This paper first expounds the background and significance of the topic,then introduces the core theories of trade,foreign direct investment and system;secondly,it expounds the current situation of China’s direct investment and trade to the countries along the line,and calculates the institutional distance between China and the countries along the line;secondly,it combs the theoretical mechanism of the impact of foreign direct investment on trade;lastly,from the China Statistical Yearbook,Databases such as the world bank database,the American Heritage Foundation’s economic freedom database,China’s external investment statistics bulletin and WGI database were selected to analyze the trade,investment,system,GDP and other indicators of 48 sample countries along the "one belt and one road" for 2003--2017 years.The empirical study is divided into two parts.The first part is to use SPSS software to cluster the sample countries according to the distance difference between the sample countries and the Chinese system along the "one belt and one road".The sample countries with small institutional distance from China,medium institutional distance from China and large institutional distance are listed.In the second part,according to the classification of institutional distance type,we use Stata software to make panel regression on the three sample countries which are classified by institutional distance,in order to analyze the trade effect of investment under the difference of institutional distance: what are the differences?The conclusion is: under the difference of institutional distance,China’s export trade effect of direct investment in the sample countries with "The Belt and Road Initiative" and small sample size is all export creation effect;China’s export trade effect of direct investment in the sample countries with a medium distance from the system and a large distance from the system is both an export substitution effect and a long-term export creation effect.The short-term and long-term effects of China’s import trade on OFDI in sample countries with small institutional distance are import substitution effects,while the long-term effects are import creation effects;China’s effect on OFDI in sample countries with medium institutional distance is import creation effects;and the short-term effects of China’s import trade on OFDI in sample countries with large institutional distance are import substitution effects and long-term effects are import creation effects.Oral creation effect.Finally,according to the conclusions drawn from this paper,from the state and enterprise level,this paper expounds the policy recommendations in optimizing the "environment along the road" environment,improving the efficiency of the "The Belt and Road Initiative" construction and implementing the spatial differential investment,hoping to seize the opportunity provided by the "The Belt and Road Initiative" to build the platform and direct investment and bilateral trade in the countries along the line.The exhibition has made another great achievement. |
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