Spatio-Temporal Analysis And Research On Prevention And Control Measures Based On Crime Hotspots

With the development of intelligence-led policing strategy,time-series analysis,digital map analysis,influencing factors analysis and other public intelligence analysis techniques based on big data have also been widely used.Taking the robbery case in the six districts of B city as an example,it is of great theoretical significance and practical value to study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics,significant influence factors and prevention and control countermeasures of robbery cases.In theory,the analysis of the time and space of robbery cases and the analysis of influencing factors in combination with specific urban crimes can enrich the research results of criminal intelligence analysis in China,and provide reference for future research on crime and space-time.In practice,according to the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of robbery cases and the significant influence factors of robbery cases,the robbery crime prevention and control system was established to provide decision support for public security organs to reduce the incidence of robbery cases.Based on the theory of social disintegration,daily activity theory,rational choice theory and other criminological theories,this study uses the statistical analysis function of SPSS data and the spatial distribution visualization function of geographic information system software(ArcGIS)to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and influencing factors of robbery cases in the six districts of B city.Draw the conclusions as following: Firstly,the robbery cases have significant differences in intraday distribution,inter-week distribution,monthly distribution,seasonal distribution,and intra-month distribution.There are hot spots of crime time,but there is no significant difference between working days and rest days;Secondly,the robbery cases are clustered in spatial distribution,with a feature of spatial hotspots.By analyzing the space-time hotspot matrix analysis of the hotspots in the robbery cases,the spacetime modes of the hotspots are found to be “a-B”,“c-B”,“b-B”,“c-B”;Thirdly,there're plenty of key factors to the occurrence of robbery cases.On the time level,it is found that the number of robbery crimes has a significant correlation with the average temperature,duration of sunshine,whether it is a holiday and major events.On the spatial level,the spatial distribution of the case has a significant correlation with the service industry activity,the proportion of migrants,the population density,and the existence of commercial areas.Finally,based on the analysis of the characteristics of time and space and the influencing factors,from the perspective of information science,combined with the relevant theories of criminology and investigation,the prevention and control system of robbery crimes is established in three levels-prevention,management and control,guidance.and detection.At the prevention level,it is based on the premise of intelligence perception to improve the situation prevention strategy.At the management and control level,the establishment of a perfect intelligent policing follows the risk assessment.At the level of the guidance and detection,the leading of the synthetic operations is centered on comprehensive intelligence research and judgment.