Spatio-temporal Analysis Of Urban Burglary

At present,China is in a period of social transformation,and the crime problem in the process of urbanization presents a new development trend,bringing new challenges to the crime prevention and control work.The crime of burglary has presented new characteristics in the new era.The domestic police strategy research and criminal empirical research are urgently needed to accelerate.Foreign urban police work mode and criminal empirical research based on spatio-temporal analysis are constantly innovating and developing,bringing many new ideas for crime prevention and control work in China.This paper first reviews the research status of the theory and practice of crime spatiotemporal research at home and abroad.On the basis of understanding the relevant research and technical routes at home and abroad,the field research of Area C of B City was carried out.In terms of data analysis,the first is to analyze the crime time,to test whether the crime of burglary has a different distribution at various time scales,and to explore the distribution law and characteristics of crime time.The second is to analyze the crime space.By using the spatial autocorrelation analysis,nuclear density estimation,hotspot analysis and other methods in Arc GIS software to generate,identify and verify the hot spot of burglary crimes in Area C of City B.The study found that the crime of burglary in Area C showed a various distribution pattern in time distribution.At the "time" level,the number of burglary crimes with a blind spot interval of less than 4 hours accounted for about half,indicating that the time blindness of most cases is shorter;at the "day" level,burglary can be divided within each month.Four periods of "three highs and one low";At the level of "day",burglary can be divided into four periods of "three highs and one low" in the month;on the "month" level,the number of cases occurring in summer is significantly more than other seasons,showing obvious seasons difference.At the level of Spring Festival,the number of burglary cases will be significantly reduced.At the same time,the crime of burglary in Area C is concentrated in the spatial distribution.The overall distribution direction of burglary crimes in 2012,2013 and 2014 is from northwest to southeast.The hotspots are concentrated in the midwest and southwest regions parts of Area C,which can be divided into new residential areas,"villages in the city" area,old community and villa area.Combined with the field investigation of Area C of City B,the analysis framework of the four elements including "crime","victim","supervision" and "situation" is used to analyze these four types of crime hotspots.On the basis of spatial-temporal analysis,the author puts forward some countermeasures from the micro,meso and macro levels.At the micro level,we could adopt classification and guidance measures for different hotspots;at the meso level,we could adopt hierarchical control measures for different time and space;at the macro level,we could explore the construction of predictive policing models based on spatio-temporal analysis.