The Essence,Application And Risk Of Probabilistic Method In Evidence Evaluation

In the field of judicial researches in China,there are more researches about evidence-rules and fewer ones on proof.In terms of the latter,there are fewer studies on probability theory and related issues.This thesis aims to introduce the theory of probability into the field of judicial proof.Compared with the trend of the researches in the west countries,the researchers in China pay fewer attention to the topic of"probability and judicial proof".So this thesis can make up the research gap in China to some degree.This paper mainly uses the methods of case analysis,comparative study and interdisciplinary study to elaborate the judicial application of probability theory in order to further explore the specific deduction mode and application process of it.Due to the uncertainty of the major and minor premises of the fact identification,the path of deductive reasoning does not have much applicable space in the field of evidence,and the method of deductive reasoning is a kind of non-expanded knowledge reasoning structure,and it does not have much enlightening significance to the judicial proof.On the contrary,inductive reasoning is more reflected in judicial practice.The main logical methods of evidence evaluation is inductive logic in essence,such as abductive reasoning,corroboration and the best explanation.As one of the important methods of modern inductive logic,probabilistic method can also theoretically be an important means to discover the truth of facts.The application of probabilistic method in evidence evaluation.The application of probabilistic method in evidence evaluation is mainly reflected in the two levels of proof power of single evidence and proof standard of comprehensive whole case evidence.This paper focuses on the following problems:Bayes’ theorem likelihood ratio agrees with the theory of evidence correlation;As an important method to evaluate the proving force of evidence,likelihood ratio of Bayes’ theorem has important theoretical and practical basis.In terms of statistical evidence such as alcohol testing,footprint identification and NDA evidence,Bayes’ theorem plays an important role in data analysis.To prove standard precise digital problem,civil proof standard(that is,the advantages of the evidence standard)according to the conditional probability theory can be converted into P>0.5,while understanding P>0.5,in this paper,on the one hand,to advocate P>0.5 as a relative ratio,rather than absolute values,reflected in the advantages of evidence as standard level of the plaintiffs claim in using both sides of the claim with the advantage of greater than 1(P>1/2),the plaintiff can win;On the other hand,P>0.5 is not only applicable at the level of proof standards,but also applicable to propositions,elements and facts derived from evidence inference.In addition,the"coincidence paradox" caused by the probability of the dominant evidence standard needs to be further clarified.Fundamentally speaking,the constituent elements of the facts of the case are not independent,and the coincidence probability theory has no applicable conditions and possibility in the evidence consolidation and consolidation,so the paradox caused by this naturally resolves.Therefore,probabilistic method plays an important role in discovering the truth.However,the judicial application of probabilistic method also has risks from many aspects.The third is the leap from Numbers to natural language.Based on the consideration of avoiding the risk brought by the probabilistic method to the judicial practice,the dominant position of human will and the auxiliary function of technical method are affirmed,and a good environment is created for the fact adjudicator to guarantee his right of free testimony.In addition,the fact adjudicator should be aware that the value of the judicial application of probabilistic methods lies only in reminding and assisting,rather than replacing other methods.