The Impacts Of Robot On Employment In China

With AlphaGo defeating Lee Sedol,unmanned technology continueing to mature,artificial intelligence and robots become hot topic.We are increasingly concerned about the impact for human of the automation technology such as robot.On the one hand the robot can replace human beings in a lot of dangerous work,to avoid possible human casualties,or replace people engaged in simple repetition or high-intensity labor,avoiding the monotonous work;on the other hand,the robot industry itself will also create the corresponding labor needs,making employment increases,and the robot can also make the cost of production reduced,thus the production efficiency increase,making the whole society to increase production and increase the well-being of the whole human.The two aspects of the impact is intertwined,making its impact more complex.In the foreign countries,the labor participation rate is decreasing,the proportion of capital income in national income is increasing,the labor market polarization,the decline of the middle class and the jobless economic recovery have become the important characteristics of the developed countries’ economy.The employment problem has become the focus of labor market.In China,labor shortage,rising labor costs,population aging,large-scale use of robots,make China’s labor market situation complex.Based on the situation of labor market at home and abroad,it can be found that the large-scale use of robots is the problem that the labor market needs to face.It is necessary to know the influence of the robot on employment and to understand the impact of the robot on wages and determine the magnitude of the influence from the robot.The large-scale use of robots belongs to the category of technological progress,and thus the influence of technological progress on employment is this thesis’ theory.Technological progress has two major effects on employment,one is destructive effect on employment,and the most famous theory is Schumpeter’s Creative damage theory.The impact of the robot on the employment is by replacing the original work or improving efficiency,making the demand for labor to reduce.The other aspects of the robot’s effect also increase employment,and the impact is by reducing the product prices to increase labor demand.The use of robot puting into use will need the corresponding technical staff,while the development of the robot also need the scientists.Vivarelli summed up the six mechanisms fo robot to increase employment.Based on the above theoretical and practical observations,this thesis establishes a task-based model,which can describe the characteristics of the job market.On the one hand,the existing tasks are constantly being replaced by robots and automation technology.On the one hand there are new complex tasks to be created.We can use this model to study the impact of automation technology on employment.Based on this model,we use the number of robots as capital to study the influence of robot on employment.And the supply function of both the labor and the robot market is giving.Under the condition of market clearing,the impact of robot on employment and wage can be calculated.Combined the robot data with China’s labor market data,we can quantify the impact of the robot on the labor market by regressions.In this thesis,we use this model to find the following results:the impact of industrial robots on employment is negative and significant under the fixed effect model,and the coefficient of influence is between-1.687 and-0.609,and the result is robust.According to the 2014 data,it is estimated that the impact of one robot per ten thousand workers on employment is between-0.0150 and-0.0054 workers,and the number of replacement is between 0.0576 and 0.0584,and the number of increasing employment is between 0.0523 and 0.0434.The number of substitutes for a human by a robot is between 12.24 and 14.37.The use of robots has a significant impact on the mining industry,manufacturing,water and electricity supply,and construction.The cumulative penetration of the robot has a significant impact on employment.The use of industrial robots has a significant impact on wages under the LSDV model,and the symbols are negative.Therefore,China needs to combine the characteristics of the labor market and the robot market,to complete and improve the integration of labor market,to improve the quality of workers,to improve labor efficiency,and also need to seize the industrial upgrading chance to speed up the industrial automation from a long-term perspective to consider China’s development instead of influencing by its short-term negative effects to stop the development of the robot industry.