The Effect Of Household Demographic Structure On Demand For Housing

From time immemorial,housing is of vital importance which is related to national interest and people’s livelihood,and the basic living security of thousands of households.That everyone has his home to live is cornerstone of people’s beautiful life and necessity of building a fairly well-off society.In the early days of new china,we implement welfare-oriented public housing distribution system,while in 1998 we put it to an end.Real estate industry enters a new prosperous period;the selling acreage and average price of residential commodity houses keep rising.Population is the direct source of housing demand,and change in demographic structure can affect it.Our country has entered a period which is of low birth rate,low death rate,and low natural growth rate;baby bust,population aging and the miniaturization tendency of household scale have become the fundamental realities.In addition,the gross rate of sex is on the high side,male is more than female.Our country’s population structure steps into the new normal phase,and demand for housing is high;under this background,the study on household demographic structure and demand for housing has practical significance.Scholars at home and abroad have made much research about household demographic structure and demand for housing from the perspective of natural structure,socioeconomic structure and spatial structure.However,most research are based on macro-data and macroscopic perspective;there are less study based on micro-data and microcosmic perspective.Therefore,using data from 2015 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS),this paper use Probit model to analyze household demographic structure and housing tenure;use multinomial Probit model to study household demographic structure and housing suite;use Tobit model to study household demographic structure and the ratio of house property to asset.Major conclusions are as follows: First,household scale,the number of children,the aged and boys,children’s gender all have significant positive influence on housing tenure.Second,the bigger of household scale,the more number of children and boys,the bigger possibility family will have more than one housing,the lower possibility family will not have housing;increase of the number of the aged can reduce the possibility that family don’t have housing;compared to family without boys,family with boys can reduce the possibility that they don’t have housing,and can increase the possibility that they have two houses.Third,household scale,the number of children and boys,children’s gender have significant positive influence on the ratio of house property to asset,but the number of the aged don’t have significant influence.