Changes In Return To Education In China

As the index of education investment which is rich in connotation,the return to education is a kind of static information at a certain moment,which cannot dynamically judge the validity of education investment,so it is necessary to study the changes in return to education.Based on "China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS)" 1989-2011 data,first,we estimate the overall trend of China's return to education and the trend of the return to all levels of education,and make a research on the gender difference and regional difference;Secondly,this paper creatively analyzes the urban and rural factors and the "education-occupation" Combining the matching situation,the ORU classification regression model was used to investigate the changes in return to difference of the urban and rural education;Then,this paper studies the changes in return to education by using the regression model of the number of digits,and analyzes the changes in return to education of different income points.Finally,to solve the "ability bias" that might exist in the model,the paper also uses the instrumental variable method to verify the overall trend in return to education in China.With regard to the changes in return to education,this paper obtains the following conclusions:(1)The overall return to education of our country shows a two-section rule which tends to accelerate and stabilize.And the change in return to education at all levels varies greatly.In recent years,the return to education in junior high school has decreased obviously,and the return to education in the middle schools is relatively stable,while that of secondary school and junior college and above will keep on the upward trend.(2)from the point of view of gender difference,the change in return to education of male is stable after first growth,while for female,the change in return to education always keeps steady upward trend.From the perspective of regional differences,the return to education in the eastern region and the central region also appears to be stable after the first growth,while the return to education in the western region has maintained a steady upward trend in recent years.(3)When the sample is in the matching(required-education)state,the urban and rural return to education is obviously rising;when the sample was in the State of education excess(overeducation),the return to urban and rural education also showed an upward trend,but the upward trend was gentle;when the sample is in the education deficiency(under-education),the regression coefficient of the town sample fluctuates greatly,the regression coefficients of the rural samples were relatively stable.(4)The change in return to education in high income points also shows the trend of growth after the flat,and the higher the change in return to education is comparatively higher,while the low income points show strong growth and maintain high growth during the study period.(5)Using instrumental variables method to eliminate the problem of "ability deviation",1991-2011 China's return to education overall also showed a two-stage trend similar to OLS result,which validated the validity of OLS results.