Analysis On The Influence Of Population Age Structure Change On Residents’ Consumption In Jilin Province

With the deepening of reform and opening up,jilin province has entered the middle stage of economic transformation.With the continuous improvement of the level of marketization and urbanization,jilin province has achieved rapid economic development.However,in contrast to the rapid economic growth,the overall consumption level of jilin province is low.Low household consumption will lead to insufficient effective consumer demand and affect the sustainable development of the economy.Population age structure composed of different also has great influence for residents’ consumption,from the perspective of population age structure consumer issues helps from the macroscopic Angle analysis under the background of population aging in jilin province economic development potential in the future.Jilin province began to enter the aging society in 2003,and the aging degree has been deepening ever since.It is worth thinking how to adjust the consumption structure in the context of aging population to seek new economic growth point.Therefore,based on the population age structure as the breakthrough point,the population age structure changes and the relationship between the consumer and theoretical and empirical research,build into the population age structure and the residents’ consumption of VAR model,using the data of jilin province population age structure variables to the model is analyzed.Therefore,the research results of this paper have certain significance to the future consumption structure adjustment of jilin province.Using data from 1995 to 2016 of population age structure and the residents’ consumption for qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,selection of population age structure variables have elderly dependency ratio and the children’s dependency ratio,residents’ consumption variables have life consumption of urban residents and rural residents living consumption.Through the analysis in this paper,the main conclusions are the following several aspects: first,jilin province,the falling birthrate negative natural population growth rate in 2016,the population aging degree deepening,the jilin city phenomenon of an aging population is the most serious.Second,the consumption level of urban and rural residents in jilin province has been continuously improved,but the gap has gradually widened.The average living consumption of urban residents is 2.2 times that of rural residents.Thirdly,there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between population dependency ratio and residents’ consumption,and there is a two-way granger causality between population dependency ratio and residents’ consumption level.Fourth,VAR model and impulse response function that elderly dependency ratio on the urban and rural residents consumption in the short term is not obvious,which is negative for urban residents consumption in the long run,the influence of the rural residents’ consumption has a negative effect in the early,after the fourth period into a positive impact.The ratio of child support to household consumption has a positive effect in the short term,but not in the long term.