| Grain prices always has been an important topic to Chinese,especially in the economic globalization and the degree of integration of the international market gradually deepening today,the food issue has gradually become a political topic.The state's management of food price fluctuations is also being further strengthened.On the one hand,the sharp fluctuation of grain prices will bring a serious impact on the interests of grain producers,in addition,it will also have a certain impact on consumers;on the other hand.The fluctuation of grain price will also have certain influence on the whole country's food security and political security.According to the National Bureau of Statistics' 2018 grain output statistics,China's total grain output in 2018 was about 6,758,900 tons,a decrease of 37.10 million tons from 2017,down 0.6%.Grain production was 6101.9 million tons,which was 2.2 million tons in 2017,down 0.8%.Therefore,the characteristics of grain price fluctuation in China and the effect of grain price fluctuation on urban residents are worth studied.The impact on welfare has important theoretical and practical significance.This paper mainly selects the relevant statistical data from 1997 to 2017,using the method of combining theory and practice,using qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to analyze the fluctuation characteristics and periodicity characteristics of grain prices in China.Then the Minot model is used to calculate the effect of grain price fluctuation on the welfare of urban residents.The first chapter mainly mainly introduces the background of the topic selection,as well as the research purpose,significance and method,and summarizes the research status of “food price fluctuation” and “food price fluctuation on the welfare of urban residents”.The second chapter introduces the concepts and theoretical basis.Including the concept of "food" and "urban residents",and explain the "economic cycle fluctuation theory","price theory","welfare utility theory".The third chapter mainly introduces empirical analysis of grain price fluctuation in China.Based on the time series data from 1997 to 2017,qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are used to explain the agglomeration and asymmetry characteristics of China's grain price fluctuations.The fourth chapter studies the fluctuation cycle of grain price in China.Through the data of 1997-2017,the paper divides China's grain price fluctuation cycle,and the results show that it can be divided into 8 cycles;in general,China's grain price fluctuations show a steep rise and fall and deep expansion.Periodic fluctuation characteristics.The fifth chapterstuides the impact of Grain Price fluctuation on the Welfare of Urban residents.By referring to Minot's welfare calculation model,the long-term welfare and short-term benefits of different income groups in cities and towns are measured,and then the impact of food price fluctuations on urban housing welfare is analyzed.The sixth chapter is mainly summarize the conclusions of the study,and give some advices.According to the research contents,this paper puts forward some policy tests on stabilizing grain prices and improving the welfare of urban residents.Through the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,this paper analyzes the characteristics of China's food price fluctuations and periodic characteristics,and the impact on the welfare of urban residents.The main conclusions are as follows two points :China's grain price fluctuations have obvious characteristics of agglomeration and asymmetry,and the price of different grains has changed.In addition,China's food price fluctuations can be divided into eight asymmetric cycles,and each price fluctuation cycle has obvious differences.The asymmetry of China's grain price fluctuations is comprehensive.It is mainly characterized by a cyclical feature of steep rise and fall and deep expansion.Finally,urban residents of different income levels have different degrees of reflection on changes in food prices. |
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