Financial Warning Analysis Of Listed Real Estate Companies Based On Dynamic Factor Cox Model

With the rapid development of China's economy,establishing a sound risk management model for listed companies is increasingly important for the healthy development of the A-share stock market.At present,Cox proportion-al advantage model is the most widely used statistical method in the research at home and abroad.But at present,research often only introduces financial data of the company.Recent studies have introduced industry and macroeco-nomic factors into the Cox model.However,due to the control of the number of independent variables,only a few economic variables are introduced,such as GDP growth rate.Based on previous studies at home and abroad,this paper has made some innovations.Considering that the introduction of a small number of macro e-conomic indicators can not reflect the impact of the overall macro environment on the financial situation of listed companies.This paper combines the dynam-ic factor model and Cox proportional advantage model to improve the financial early warning model.Firstly,a large number of macroeconomic variables are used to construct a small number of dynamic factors and introduce them into the Cox model as time-dependent covariates by establishing a dynamic factor model.In this way,most factors of the macroeconomic environment are in-troduced into the financial distress warning model of the company through a small number of covaxiates.Thus a more comprehensive understanding of the macro factors on real estate listed companies into financial distress warning impact.By comparing the static model of introducing classical factors and Lasso punishment,This study shows that the static model with Lasso penalty for variable selection is better.By comparing the static model with the dynamic model,This paper shows that the financial model is more accurate after the introduction of macro factors.The results of this study show that the two financial indicators,working capital/total assets and retained earnings/total assets,play a protective role in the financial situation of listed companies.Secondly,this paper concludes the following characteristics of real estate enterprises:1.When the asset turnover rate of the company is greatly increased,the company may be in financial difficulties and need to deal with a large number of real estate inventory for capital reflux,and there is a risk of financial difficulties in the near future.2.As the former real estate industry is an industry with high debt ratio,enterprises with low debt ratio may find it difficult to issue bonds for financing due to their own credit problems,and there is a risk of financial distress in the near future.3.Macroeconomic factors play a protective role in the financial situation of listed companies,and when the economic situation improves,the probability of financial distress will be reduced.