Research On The Threshold Effect Of Aging Population On The Adjustment Of Industrial Structure In Yangtze River Delta City Group

The essence of the regional economy is the spatial discontinuity of economic variables.From early Location Theory and Regional Science to New Economic Geography,scholars have been trying to find a scientific explanation for this kind of agglomeration economy.In this process of agglomeration,People are both reasons and performances,and they are the results.The importance of people is self-evident.For industry,people are the foundation of industrial development.From the perspective of demand,as the ultimate consumer,people's growing and ever-changing demand is the most primitive source of power in the process of industrial formation and development;from the perspective of supply,people are the main provider of labor,the most important factor of production.The change in the number of working-age laborers,also affects the direction of industrial adjustment.Therefore,whether it is to study supply or demand,aging population is closely related to the development of the industry.At present,China's economy has entered the "new normal" stage where economic growth rate changes from rapid growth to moderate growth,and the problem in industrial structure that was previously covered by rapid economic growth has begun to show up at this stage.At the same time,the aging population following the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend has increasingly demonstrated the trend of accelerated development.How can we effectively adjust the industrialstructure and promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure in light of more and more aging population is the key to further releasing economic vitality and achieving high quality development.In this paper,the Yangtze River Delta city group with the aging population ranking the top in the country and relatively rapid economic development is chosen as the specific research area.Based on the Population Theory and Industrial Structure Evolution Theory,this research takes advantage of Hansen's(1998)Threshold Method to build the panel threshold model,where we using the panel data of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta city group in 1999-2016,taking the per capita disposable income as the threshold variable,and empirically studying the threshold effect in the influence of aging population on the adjustment of industrial structure.At last,this research finds that:(1)There is a prominent threshold effect on the influence of aging population in the Yangtze River Delta city group on industrial restructuring.The model taking the per capita disposable income of urban residents as a threshold variable shows that the aging population has a remarkable single-door effect on the rationalization of industrial structure(measured by the Theil index)and a remarkable two thresholds effect on the industrial structure supererogation(measured by the level coefficient of industrial structure).(2)The aging population has a positive and enhanced effect on the industrial structure supererogation,as per capita disposable income continues to increase.When the per capita disposable income is over the first threshold of 12,783 RMB,the effect of aging population on the industrial structure supererogation began to change from a negative effect to a positive effect.When the per capita disposable income is over the second threshold of 29617 RMB,the positive effect will be strengthen.Therefore,for regions where per capita disposable income is still below these two thresholds,further improvement of per capita disposable income will have a very direct effect on industrial upgrading.(3)The impact of aging population on the rationalization of the industrial structure is not as obvious as the industrial structure supererogation.Although whenper capita disposable income rises to a certain extent,the impact of aging population on the rationalization of industrial structure changes from negative to positive,the effect is becoming smaller and there is only a single threshold effect.When per capita disposable income is lower than 9601 RMB,the aging population tends to expand the irrational industrial structure.When the per capita disposable income is higher than9601 RMB,aging population is inclined to reduce the irrational industrial structure.But the coefficient between aging population and the rationalization of the industrial structure weakens,and only passes the 10% significance test.Therefore,under the background of aging population degree deepening,the Yangtze River Delta city group should give priority to promoting the upgrading of industrial structure,and secondly,taking into account the efficiency balance among industries.