The Credit Risk Measurement Research And System Establishment Of Listed Companies

In recent years,the capital market of our country is developing and expanding continuously.However,with the increasing economic development of listed companies,there are also many problems to be solved urgently,among which the defect of the credit risk that may be caused by the operating loss of enterprises is very obvious.Based on the review of various technical and historical studies on credit risk measurement,this paper focuses on the Logistic model,which has the characteristics of simple and fast observation data,so it has been widely used in the field of credit risk measurement.The model is used to measure and predict the financial loss risk of enterprises.The model results can be correlated with the enterprise credit risk indicators.The comparison of data results can also be used to verify the model.Therefore,this paper constructed a kind of credit risk measurement system,a large number of sample data as the data base,through the combination of different process variables and Logistic model to simulation experiment,three times to make the fitting into the variables of the model can reflect the characteristics of the indicators of the purpose,to the greatest extent so as to improve the prediction accuracy.In the empirical part,the research objects are listed companies of Shanghai stock exchange and Shenzhen stock exchange of China in 2017.Whether their ST status is known or not,43 companies marked by ST are selected as credit default samples,and 430 companies not marked by ST are selected as non-default samples,which conforms to the 1:10 sample ratio.The sample is divided into two parts,one part is used as training set to fit the model,and the other part is used as test set to verify the prediction effect of the model.The sample data comes from the financial data of these 473 companies in the financial statements of 2016.The purpose is to use the financial data of the previous year to predict whether the companies are likely to default on credit.Firstly,the four types of financial indicators,including the company's profitability,operating capacity,development capacity and financial risk,are selected.A total of 20 indicator variables are introduced according to the ratio of 1:1:1:1.The results are obtained by introducing the system constructed in this paper.The empirical results show that the model can be used to measure and predict the financial loss risk of enterprises,and can improve the prediction accuracy of the model by constantly improving the model.Finally,combining the empirical results and the current situation of China's capital market,some useful Suggestions are put forward.