Empirical Study On The Impact Of Population Structure On Housing Price In China

Since the introduction of relevant policies to start housing reform,China's real estate industry has developed rapidly,and effectively led to the linkage between upstream and downstream industries,and has become an indispensable backbone to promote the development of China's national economy.The rapid development of the real estate industry has directly led to the excessive growth of housing prices,and its rising momentum has not changed after several rounds of targeted regulatory policy guidance.From 1999 to 2017,the average price of commercial housing in China rose from 1857 yuan per square meter to 7614 yuan per square meter,with an average annual increase of 16.32%.Excessive housing prices have brought heavy pressure to the lives of ordinary residents.Meanwhile,at the end of 2016,the Central Economic Working Conference first put forward the concept of " The house is for living,not for hype ",emphasizing that houses are used to live.Population as the ultimate carrier of residential function and investment function of commercial housing,its structural characteristics have also undergone tremendous changes with the vigorous development of China's national economy and the transformation of social relations,which has led to dramatic changes in housing prices.The real estate industry of China has the characteristics of large volume,strong driving force and wide social impact,so the current academic circles mainly focus on the study of its influencing factors to explore the formation mechanism of housing prices.Some scholars in the existing literature have been focused on population factors,but their research on population almost limited to population size or population age.However,the structural characteristics of the population are complex,such that the age,gender and income levels of different groups may cause changes in housing prices.Therefore,there is great significance to explore the influence mechanism between population factors and housing prices,that will have far-reaching significance for future research.To analyze this issue,this paper combined theoretical research and empirical analysis.In the aspect of theoretical research,this paper collects and reviews the existing related research results of this topic.According to the concept of demography,the population structure is divided into three categories: natural structure,social structure and regional structure.The gender ratio and dependency ratio of population are selected as the measurement criteria of the natural structure of population.The family structure and income structure of population are selected as the measurement criteria of the social structure of population.We choose the structure of population mobility and the structure of urbanization to measure the regional structure.Based on the exiting relevant theories,this paper deduces the path of the impact of China's population structure on housing prices,and gives a detailed description of the development history and current situation of China's real estate industry.In the empirical analysis stage,to demonstrating the impact of different levels of population structure on housing prices,this paper establish an empirical model based on panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2002 to 2016.The analysis results show that in the natural structure of population,gender ratio has a positive impact on housing prices,and the increase of dependency ratio will restrain the rise of housing prices.In the social structure of population,both the small size of families and the increase of income level will promote the rise of housing prices.In the regional structure of population,the advancement of urbanization and the increase of the proportion of floating population will rise housing prices.At the same time,based on the above empirical analysis and considering the imbalance of regional development in China,this paper uses K-means cluster analysis method to classify 31 provinces and cities by the characteristics of population structure and housing prices.And then the cluster regression analysis finds that: there are regional differences in the impact of population structure on housing prices.This paper clarifies the impact of different levels of population structure on China's housing prices by classifies and summarizes China's population structure from different levels,which lays a foundation for future related research.At the same time,based on the conclusions of this study,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward: In order to cope with the increasingly serious social aging,we should vigorously develop old-age real estate.In order to make rapid response to the social problems caused by population mobility,the government should establish and improve the monitoring mechanism of floating population and introducing differentiated policies for different regions,etc.In this way,it can provide policy basis for relevant departments.