Research On The Influencing Factors Of "Five Modernizations" Coupling Development In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based On Bayesian Network

The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need to promote the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The two National Congresses pointed out that the coordinated development in industrial dissolution,traffic radiation,and ecological improvement has achieved results.At present,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperative development has reached a critical stage of overcoming difficulties,but existing research has mainly focused on population,economy,transportation,industry,and ecological environment,while whether new industrialization,informationization,new urbanization,agricultural modernization,and greening(referred to as "Five modernizations")can coordinate sustainable development is of great practical significance to further promote the integration process,but the comprehensive analysis of this aspect is relatively deficient.This article from the perspective of "five modernizations" coordination analyzing the current status of the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,and establishing the "five modernization" indicator system,selecting a Bayesian network model according to the data characteristics,constructing the influential factor model of "five modernization" coordinated development based on Bayesian network,exploring the dynamic relationship and potential between the index system of the comprehensive evaluation value of each "modernization" and the degree of coordinated development,highlighting the Bayesian network model in dealing with uncertainty relation,multicollinearity,overfitting problem,prediction and diagnosis.Initially,the connotation of the "five modernizations" was elaborated,and constructing an evaluation index system for coordinated development of the "five modernizations" based on systematic research.Among them,in the construction of the "five modernizations" indicator system,in order to distinguish the boundary between greenization and other "four modernizations",the indicators that reflect the overall greening degree is classified as greenization.The development status of the "five modernization" of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was analyzed based on the index data,and then the data are analyzed with the improved entropy method,coupling coordination model and the coordinated development model,we found that from 2008 to 2017,the comprehensive development level of the 13 prefecture-level cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region continued to improve,and the extent and depth of the mutual influence among the "five modernization" cities were greatly improved,and the development trend of coordination has improve.However,the development level,growth rate and advantage distribution of each city were still greatly different.Secondly,in order to effectively analyze the main influencing factors of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the regional differences,a Bayesian network model of influencing factors of the coordinated development of the "five modernization" was constructed.An exploratory modeling analysis of the linear regression model and panel data model of the "five modernization" data of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,We found that the reason for the poor fitting effect and explanation is that the above models ignore the structural relation and the degree of mutual influence among the indexes,while the Bayesian network performs dynamic modeling of variables based on correlation and independence.To this end,a Bayesian network model is selected,the decision tree regression results are used to infer the division of influencing factors,and the priori optimization problem is considered before parameter learning.Through sensitivity analysis,forward probability prediction and reverse factor diagnosis,it was found that the effects of new industrialization,new urbanization,agricultural modernization,informatization and greenization on the coordinated development of the "five modernizations" of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were weakened successively.In addition,the per capita GDP,post and telecommunications business index,Economic urbanization,agricultural productivity and urban-rural income ratio are the key indicators that affect the development of each "modernization".Finally,according to the comprehensive analysis of the connotation parsing,status quo description,evaluation results,coupling degree,coordination trend and model construction of the "five modernization" in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the main problems are found and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward.Among them,the main problems in the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are as follows: in the region,the backwardness of Hebei province is the key factor restricting the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei;In the "five modernizations",there is insufficient motivation for high-quality industrial development,the degree of informatization integration needs to be strengthened,regional differences in urban construction still exist,modern agricultural development encounters bottlenecks,and the leading role of greenization is weak.And propose the corresponding countermeasures and Suggestions: Firstly,taking regional coordination as an opportunity to jointly build a new situation for the coordinated development of the "Five Modernizations" of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei;Second,using information construction as a hub to strengthen the integration of the "five modernizations" and inject new impetus into economic development;Third,on the basis of green development,promoting the integration and sharing of urban and rural resources,and contribute to the building of a beautiful China.