Optimal Design And Implementation For The Prediction Model Of Aviation Portfolio

The domestic and international research on the forecasting model of aviation traffic volume is still rare.Even though some literatures involve the construction of related models,this kind of literature focuses on the mechanism of route layout optimization,rather than constructing the airline traffic forecasting model from the point of route planning.Therefore,based on the network information system of Tongliao civil aviation airport,this paper constructs a new forecasting model by using the clustering algorithm of ant colony optimization.The existing traffic prediction model based on clustering algorithm(TCMBCA for short),the two main problems: on the one hand,if the clustering factor extracted less,will produce the clustering results of low accuracy,subjective factors,the key factor missing clustering problem;on the other hand,if the clustering factor extraction too much,it will lead to the clustering factor confused,clustering efficiency is low.Therefore,by introducing the grey relational analysis method in this paper,find the cluster factor grey comprehensive correlation strong from many clustering factors,and based on the correlation strength of each factor according to the order,and eliminate the secondary factors to predict the impact of civil aviation traffic,so as to realize the optimization process of the TCMBCA model.The main work includes: firstly,the research status at home and abroad to build a comprehensive analysis on the model of air traffic prediction;secondly,related tools and theories involved in this thesis are summarized,combined with the actual situation of Tongliao City,the civil aviation airport,to analyze the TCMBCA model optimization method using grey correlation;thirdly,the optimized application the air traffic prediction model between 2010-2016 on road,railway,aviation,tourism,commerce,enterprises,foreign enterprises investment accounted for data clustering analysis,and through cluster analysis results in a large number of alternative routes to be opened in the city,to find out the scientific inherent close relationship with Tongliao City,a city or an alternative the alternative city set;finally,the actual data extraction in recent years and the volume of business related to the Tongliao Airport,with TCMBCA Compared with the model,it is proved that the TCMBCA model optimized by the grey relational analysis method has certain advantages in the prediction accuracy and efficiency of air traffic volume.