A Study On The Influence Of Media Effect On The Formation Of Learning Expectation Of Chinese Residents

Keeping price in reasonable level is not only a vital part of people's livelihood,but also reflects the ability to govern the economy.The stable price level benefits to stimulate the real economy demand,goods exchange and the growth of wealth.In our country,keeping price stable is also one of the central bank monetary four policys.However,with the complex international situation in recent years,some countries anti-globalization to limit other countries' export,which seriously destroy the international trade relation,bulk commodity price and the international finance markets'stability.At the same time,our country is conducting the structural reform of supply-side,which aggracates the price fluctuation.Moreover,the agents bear a lot of psychological pressure when they form their inflation expectations,influencing severely potential demand.Thus,paying attention to price,especially the agents how to form their inflation expectations,is good for designing the monetary policy and maintain our macroeconomics stability.Recently,the behavioral finance has been developed so rapidly that more and more economy research are turning into discussing the agents how to make a decision.In this process,it's related to some non-economic variables.Meantime,some subjects make a progress,such as psychology,medical science,which provide interdisciplinary theoretical basis to this researches.With the help of epidemiology in medical science and The Spiral of Silence in communication science,this paper mainly focus on the role of media in our macroeconomics,especially in the inflation expectation.Related empirical studies stress the media how to affect the agents' inflation expectation,but the innovative point of this thesis is the consideration of it in inflation expectation formation,combined with adaptive learning theory,analyzing the role of media effect and people learning in inflation expectation.On the basis of estimated consumers' learning expectation,this paper also discusses different conduction channel relative influence of media effect in our country.To measure the media effect,this paper collect the news and coverges data by extracting some key words from internet media.Besides,this paper analyze the volume of news and tone of news how to influence the inflation expectation.Main conclusions as following.The results of kalman filter express that the agents' inflation expectation is stick.And assuming people follow the adaptive learning process,the volume of news still performs significant positive effect.Consumers is sensitive to the volume of the news,not the content of news.When the number of related news increases in common lives,people always worry about the future economy.and the terror is spreading in public like the epidemiology mentions so that the inflation expectation rise.On the other hand,when analyzing the tone of news,this paper distinguishes the direction of reports,just rise,stable and fall.Results of this model emphasis that people perceive negative sentiments deeply.Only the news related price rising,its coefficient estimation is significant.This imply that negative stories spiral strongly in inflation expectation.In general,the two conducts of media effect both influence significantly our learning expectations.Except,the analysis of two different conduction channel indicates that in the short term,the tone of media may affect positively expectation fluctuation more quickly than the volume of media.In the long run,the volume of coverage influence more deeply.From the results of impulse response and variance decomposition,consumers keep insufficient understanding for the relative price decreasing news.As a result,it make expectation fluctuates violently.Therefore,the supervisory authority is supposed to pay attention the volume of media and dispersion degree,information disclosure and keeping away false information.Fundamentally speaking,it should bear the responsibility of popularization of finance knowledge and investor edcutation,improving their economic literacy and guiding their expectation.In light of researcher's limited knowledge,there is also some limitness.For example,after crawling the related stories from the media websites and store them compeletly,a necessary step is spending a lot of time reading and screening these huge text data to get rid of some unqualified news and classify them.Having checked up twice thoroughtly,it's not sure the data is correct,which may induce some error.Due to some websites limited data storage capacity,some paper media can't release their total reports.As a result,this limitness decrease the number of paper media sample and shorten time interval.To related conclusion,if there is more available resource about media,many studies can make further discussion.Similarly,if researchers can enlarge the sample interval and get more data,they are able to examine whether media effect exists structural change.