Financial Early Warning Research Of Enterprises Listed On The New Third Board Based On KLR And BP Neural Network

New third board market is another national trading place after the main board market and the growth enterprise market,its main service objects are innovative,entrepreneurial and growth enterprises with small and medium size,and this is significant to those small and medium enterprises which are in small size,big risk and financing difficulties but have a strong development prospects.But new third board enterprises in our country are facing complicated management environment,coupled with their own management level and asset scale.Because of the influence of such factors,the new third board enterprises face huge financial risk,and will be affected by any carelessness in crisis,and even led to bankruptcy.Moreover,the existing corporate financial warning researches in China are mainly focused on the main board market,and the researches on the new third board enterprises are less.Therefore,according to the characteristics of the new three board enterprises,exploring suitable ways and methods of financial crisis warning for new third board enterprises and constructing a new third board enterprises financial early warning model have important theoretical and practical significance.With regard to early warning methods,KLR signal analysis and neural network have been widely adopted in lots of fields in recent years,and their contributions to prediction have become more and more prominent.The research indicates that the prediction effect of KLR signal analysis is better and is one of the mainstream financial crisis warning models.And compared to the traditional statistical analysis method,using neural network method to build the financial early warning model has higher and more stable prediction accuracy,and it does not require assumptions and has strong ability of self learning and adjustment.But so far,these two methods have not been well applied to the financial warning of new third board enterprises.Therefore,based on the KLR analysis and BP neural network model,this paper will construct financial warning models of the new third board enterprises.This paper firstly reviews the domestic and foreign financial crisis early warning research,and indicates that making research on our country new third board enterprise's financial crisis has the necessity and the feasibility.Secondly,this paper discusses the theory of financial crisis and the early warning theory of financial crisis,and introduces the KLR analysis method and BP neural network model,which is the theoretical basis for the construction of the following model.Thirdly,according to the characteristics and development of China's new third board enterprises,this paper determines the research samples,selects financial indicators and builds the financial warning index system.Then,through the KLR analysis method and BP neural network,with the aid of SPSS statistical analysis software and MATLAB software,this paper builds KLR financial early warning model,BP financial early warning model and KLR-BP combined financial early warning model,and analyzes and contrasts the warning results of each model.Finally,the paper summarizes the whole thesis and puts forward some imperfect places in this paper and the expectation of the follow-up research on the new third board enterprises.Research results show that the KLR analysis and BP neural network can be used for new third board enterprises financial crisis warning research,and the accuracy of early warning model builded through these two ways is 100%;The accuracy of the KLR-BP neural network early warning model with KLR analysis and BP neural network is also 100%,indicating that the hybrid model had good warning effect.And KLR-BP hybrid model has a better running result than the BP neural network early warning model builded by factor analysis,this indicates the index screening function of KLR analysis and shows the BP neural network's powerful ability of self learning and simulation.