Research On Optimization Of Rural E-commerce Logistics Distribution Under Uncertain Demand

With the rapid growth of rural Internet users and the popularization of e-commerce platform,rural areas have become a new potential market for e-commerce enterprises.As a key link of rural e-commerce,rural e-commerce logistics has also ushered in a huge period of development opportunities.The central government has constantly issued favorable policies to protect the development of rural e-commerce logistics.Under the guidance of government policies,logistics enterprises gradually layout the logistics distribution network system in rural areas.However,due to the characteristics of rural ecommerce logistics,such as insufficient demand and long transportation distance,the distribution cost in rural areas remains high.In order to maintain their own survival,most logistics enterprises only extend the logistics and distribution services to the township level,but not really sink to the village.In order to break the deadlock of sinking difficulties in logistics service business,some municipal governments have introduced relevant policies and subsidy systems in succession to promote the Express Delivery to the Countryside Project to make further breakthroughs.Based on the analysis of the current situation of rural e-commerce logistics development,as well as the difficulties of high distribution cost and insufficient demand,from the perspective of enterprise survival,combined with the government's policy support and financial subsidies,this paper determines that the terminal distribution in rural areas adopts the distribution mode of selecting part of villages to pick up and send at the same time.In this problem,logistics enterprises pay attention to operating profit,while the government pays attention to social benefit and fairness.Therefore,combined with the vehicle routing problem and orientation problem,aiming at the maximization of distribution profit and demand coverage,a multi-objective rural e-commerce logistics terminal distribution path planning model is constructed to meet the constraints of vehicle load and service time.NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm is used to solve the model.On the basis of rural e-commerce logistics terminal distribution path planning model,the situation of uncertain demand is further considered in the problem,and the model is optimized.Firstly,the fuzzy variables are used to deal with the demand of the delivery point.Based on the fuzzy credibility theory,the risk preference level of the decisionmaker is introduced to build the distribution path planning model of rural e-commerce logistics terminal with fuzzy chance constraints.According to the fuzzy chance constrained programming model,the actual demand of the delivery point is simulated by the fuzzy simulation method,and then the mixed NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm based on the fuzzy simulation is used to solve the problem.Based on the investigation of Mengzi Post Office in Honghe Prefecture,Yunnan Province,the Caoba town of Mengzi city is selected as the case area.The model and the designed algorithm are applied to the terminal logistics distribution path planning in this area.For the case of demand determination,the paper studies the influence of different government subsidy strategies on the distribution scheme,and determines the appropriate subsidy strategy and distribution path.For the case of considering fuzzy demand,the influence of decision-maker's subjective preference value on the solution result is studied,and the optimal range of subjective preference value is determined.Through the study of practical problems,it can provide quantitative reference for logistics enterprises to plan distribution scheme and government to make subsidy policy.This dissertation includes 36 figures,18 tables and 74 references.