Micro-credit Risk Management Based On Logistic Model

Since the invention of micro-credit,it developed rapidly in the world,the vast number of developing countries which carry out micro-credit model has provided an important way of thinking for its development in our country.the third plenary,our country encourage the development of Inclusive Financial in terms of policy.As an important part of inclusive financial system,also because financial services is relatively difficult for vast low-income groups in China to get,Financial Exclusion in the vast rural areas is also very common,the development of micro-credit is crucial for China's economic and financial development.Since the construction of the current credit system is not perfect,the rural micro-credit's own characteristics and the development of micro-credit,risk management issues of micro credit has become increasingly prominent.According to the relevant theoretical research in both China and abroad,this paper start explore this topic from the relevant research results of risk management theory and of micro-credit,a systematic theory about risks management of micro-credit has proposed.Detailed analysis and introduction of China's current micro-credit risk management situation and the legislative status of micro-credit have proposed,current micro-credit risk monitoring system and risk management methods and procedures and development of micro-credit external environment are analyzed.It pointed out that the problems existing in the current risk management of micro-credit.Using the representative of small and medium-sized enterprises as the object,it reflected the financial situation of indexes to construct the index system for loan default probability analysis.Through factor analysis after dimensionality reduction this paper using logistic model to build a risk management model,the factors that influence loan default probability the size of the main effects,and test the prediction ability of the model size.Finally according to the current micro-credit and logistic model application,this paper proposed six aspects of policy recommendations to promote the steady development of micro-credit,such as increase financial support,the realization of micro-credit interest rate marketization,improve risk sharing compensation mechanism,strengthen the construction of credit system,to improve the legal environment,enhance supervision.