A Study On The Impact Of Interest Rate And Exchange Rate On House Price

With the development of global trade integration,the real estate industry as a value-added preferred investment direction,the development is particularly rapid.This paper analyzes the relationship between interest rate,exchange rate and house price by literature review,qualitative and quantitative method respectively.Then,we discuss the transfer of interest rate and exchange rate to the real estate industry from the aspects of supply and demand,the impact of interest rates on real estate market is also reflected in the the cost-effective and expected benefits,and the impact of the exchange rate on the real estate market also changes cited by foreign classic examples to be corroborated.At the same time,the relationship between interest rate and exchange rate is obtained through theoretical model analysis.In the third chapter,through the analysis of the current situation of China's interest rate,exchange rate and real estate industry,we can find that there is a close relationship between the three.For the analysis of the present situation and theory,we can find its internal mechanism of action.According to the monthly data from 2011 to 2015 of the model,the monthly deposit rate,medium and long-term loan interest rate,overnight lending rate,one year period Long-term exchange rate and real estate prices for empirical testing and found that deposit and lending rates and housing prices in the short term there is a causal relationship between each other,and long-term deposit and lending rates alone unilaterally have an impact on house prices;overnight lending rates and one-year forward exchange rates are in the short term the price of commercial housing has a one-way role in conduction;long-term exchange rate effect is not obvious,and overnight lending rates still cause fluctuations in house prices.Through the VAR model analysis,the linkage between the interest rate and exchange rate is relatively weak,so the GARCH model is used to analyze whether there is a fluctuating relationship between the exchange rate and interest rate.Through the model to prove that there is a positive correlation between the internal linkage.Finally,combined with theoretical and empirical results to make recommendations.