Analyses On Supply Chain Operating Costs Under Uncertain Environment

With the fast development of information technology and much intenser global competition,companies cooperate more closely than ever.As a result,the traditional model of company to company competition gives its way to a new paradigm of supply chain to supply chain competition in the market place.Meanwhile,uncertain factors on supply chain bring all sorts of unpredictable impacts to supply chain.Therefore,the study of supply chain uncertainty has become a major concern for supply chain management.In this paper,a three-level supply chain operation model including a manufacturer,multiple customers and multiple suppliers under demand uncertainty is concerned.This paper considers various uncertainty factors including production capacity and lead time uncertainty and different inventory strategies.This paper investigates uncertain factors one by one through the simulation experiment,analyzing the impact on the whole supply chain operation performance and operation indicators.The concrete research content is as follow:Firstly,a purchase-production-sales three-level supply chain model is established.Compare the supply chain performance with certain and uncertain customer demand,drawing the conclusion that uncertain customer demand increases total cost of supply chain.With uncertain customer demand as the background,compare the supply chain performance with certain and uncertain production capacity.A stochastic programming model is established and Genetic algorithm is designed to solve this problem.Two experiments show that uncertain production capacity can delay the order delivery,leading to the increase of supply chain cost.Secondly,a stochastic programming model is established based on uncertain customer demand,considering lead time uncertainty,and Genetic algorithm is used to solve the problem.Analysis of experiment result show that supply chain cost increases with the increase of lead time and its uncertainty.Finally,three inventory strategies(one-time procurement strategy,(t,S)strategy and EOQ strategy)are used respectively to the stochastic programming model with uncertain customer demand as the background,and Genetic algorithm is used to solve the problem.The experiments show that under different conditions appropriate inventory replenishment strategy can reduce the purchasing cost and inventory cost,thus reduce the total cost of supply chain operation.This paper draw the conclusion:according to the actual market conditions,reasonable projections for all kinds of uncertain situation,and appropriate inventory replenishment strategy can effectively reduce the total cost of supply chain operations,maintain flexibility and efficiency of the supply chain.