Research On The Impact Of China's Monetary Policy On Real Estate Price Fluctuation

After the reform and opening,China's real estate market began to develop,the living conditions of residents have been greatly improved,and the demand for housing has also increased.The rapid rise in real estate prices in China has followed.This not only affects the healthy and stable development of China's real estate market,but also seriously affects the residents' quality of life,leading to a lower and lower happiness of the residents,which in turn will adversely affect the steady and healthy growth of China's economy.In the past 40 years of reform and opening,China's central bank has frequently introduced monetary policies in order to curb the excessive growth of housing prices in China,regulate housing prices,and promote its healthy development.In this context,the relationship between monetary policy and real estate prices must be sorted out,and government departments must promptly and effectively issue relevant policies.This article is based on a review of relevant theoretical literature and is mainly divided into two parts.The first part is the VAR model and the second part is the DSGE model.The first part of the VAR model uses data on real estate prices,interest rates,and money supply from the first quarter of 2000 in China to the fourth quarter of 2017.Analyzing the short-term and long-term effects of China's monetary policy on real estate prices,we found that monetary policy has a long-term stable relationship with real estate prices in China.In the short term,interest rates(negative prices)have a greater impact on house prices than money supply.In the long run,the impact of money supply(forward)is greater than the interest rate.The second part is the DSGE model,which establishes a DSGE model of five sectors under closed economy conditions.The five sector economic entities are families,enterprises,retailers,commercial banks,and central banks,to study the impact of monetary policy on real estate price fluctuations.This model separately makes basic assumptions about the behavior of the main economic sector.The first-order condition is obtained by solving the model,and the linearized model is obtained after logarithmic linearization.At the same time,in light of the actual situation in China,some parameter values were first obtained using the calibration method,The remaining parameters to be estimated are calculated using Bayesian estimation.,followed by numerical simulation,This article analyzes the impact of interest rates,deposit reserve ratios,and credit shocks on real estate prices.The results of the study indicate that the positive impact of one unit of interest rate and deposit reserve ratio will lead to a change in the opposite direction of real estate prices in the short term.In addition,a standard positive credit impact will lead to changes in real estate prices in the same direction in the short term,and house prices will rise rapidly,falling and returning to zero.In addition,it compares the volatility of real estate prices and other variables in the case of unsecured loans.When there is a real estate mortgage,house prices,lending household consumption,inflation rate and output fluctuations are larger.indicating the existence of Obvious financial accelerator effect and wealth effect.Finally,based on the empirical results,this paper put forward corresponding monetary policy recommendations to promote the healthy and stable development of China's real estate market,strengthen the initiative of deposit reserve ratio,and steadfastly promote interest rate market reform,at the same time,incorporate real estate prices into the consideration system of monetary policy formulation,we will exercise reasonable control over the money supply,strengthen the monitoring of the real estate market,and vigorously support the development of emerging industries.