Study On The Imbalance Of Investment And Consumption Structure Of China

Overcapacity and the pressures for environmental protection upgrading and consumer upgrades are highlighted.These factors are profoundly affecting China's sustained economic growth and urging changes in traditional economic development methods.The construction of an innovation-driven development model that is driven by consumption is becoming the main theme of economic growth.In the critical period of transferring the economic development and optimizing industrial structure,how to understand the structural imbalance between macroeconomic variables such as consumption,savings,and investment,and how to use fiscal policy and monetary policy to balance investment and consumption relationship?These are all issues worth pondering.This article will first analyze the cyclical nature of China's economic development since the Reform and Opening,and describe the general pattern of investment rates and consumption rates as the economy develops.Then,by comparing with other BRICS countries and comparing with the consensual interval of investment and consumption rate,it is judged that the investment and consumption structure of our country deviates from the desired interval.Then analyze the causes of the unbalance of investment and consumption structure from the two levels of demand and supply,and use the panel data of China's 31 provinces and municipalities from 2002 to 2016 to conduct empirical verification.The results show that the proportion of the labor force at the demand level has a significant positive effect on the imbalance of the consumption investment structure.The child dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on the imbalance of the consumer investment structure.The aged dependency ratio has a positive effect on the imbalance of the consumption investment structure.On the supply side,technological innovation and industrial upgrading have a significant negative impact on the imbalance of investment and consumption structure.The above article analyzes the endogenous reasons that affect the imbalance of consumption and investment from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.It can be further targeted to alleviate the current imbalance of investment and consumption by advancing the construction of a consumption upgrade system,strengthening the construction of social security,and focusing on technological innovation.However,we only solved the problem of "doing" and did not solve "how to do it." Next,from a more macroscopic point of view,this paper studies how fiscal policy and monetary policy affect investment and consumption imbalances,and then proposes constructive suggestions for the government to resolve the imbalance between investment and consumption.This paper expands the analytical framework of Espinosa-Vega and Yip(1999)under the framework of the Endogenous Growth Theory and introduces government expenditures,macro-tax burden,and currency into the Endogenous Growth Model to study influence of fiscal policy and monetary policy for investment and consumption.The impact of the ratio,and the use of panel data from 30 provinces and municipalities outside Tibet in 2001-2015 for empirical analysis.The results of the analysis show that the growth rate of money supply and the ratio of investment to investment have an inverted U-shaped relationship.The government's economic construction expenditure is positively correlated with the ratio of investment to consumption,while the non-economic construction expenditure is negatively correlated with the ratio of investment to consumption.The macro tax burden and investment and consumption ratio are inverted.U-shaped relationship.Finally,based on theoretical analysis and empirical research,policy recommendations are put forward.